ParK's 論文后花園

西南大学
硕士学位论文
旅游业发展对桑给巴经济增长的影响研究
姓名：玛丽
申请学位级别：硕士
专业：金融学
指导教师：谢家智
20100401
中文摘要
中文摘要
旅游在经济增长和社会现代化进程中所起的作用已得到全世界人们广泛认可。由于这个
原因，人们开始多方面尝试发展旅游业。旅游业对于很多国家来说都是具有重要价值的一项
经济活动，这是一个广泛被接受的事实。旅游业的重要性还体现在它对外汇、就业、市场拓
展、基础设施完善，以及对当地社区经济利益的影响。然而，它也可能会带来一些负面影响，
诸如对文化冲突的影响。
本论文研究了旅游业的增长对桑给巴尔经济增长的影响，旅游业给当地人民带来的利益
和旅游业对桑给巴尔文化的影响。在20世纪80年代，丁香花的价格在国际市场下跌之后，
桑给巴尔才开始在旅游领域开放。现在，在桑给巴尔，旅游业已成为它的第二支柱产业，占
全GDP的14％，到2012年，有望增加到21％。
具体来说，该研究测试了三种假设。它们是：旅游部门的完善对桑给巴尔GDP的增长做
出了很大的贡献，当地居民从旅游业的增长中获益，以及该地的文化受到了旅游业的影响。
研究结果显示，旅游业的发展对桑给巴尔的经济增长做出了重要贡献，当地居民从旅游
业中获益，该地文化在一定程度上受到旅游业的影响。
尽管研究显示旅游业确实对经济增长有重要贡献，但旅游业可以成为桑给巴尔一个更具
潜力的经济领域。重要的是，政府要矫正所有提及的劣势，(从政策层面上)采取行动，实施
这些提出的建议，例如为了桑给巴尔当前及以后长远的发展，完善基础设施，采取参与式管
理。
I
ABSTRACT
TOURISM GROWTH ON THE EFFECTS OF
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ZANZIBAR
Author
Degree：
Year
Maryam Issa Juma
Master’S Degree ofEconomics in
In Public Finance
2010
Abstract
The role of tourism in the economic growth and the progress of modem societies
has become awareness economically throughout the world．For this reason many
attempts are being made in order to develop tourism．It is acceptable fact that tourism
is an economic activity of primary value and importance for many countries．Tourism
is important due to its influence in foreign exchange，employment，market expansion,
infrastructure improvement；and its economic benefits to local communities．However,
it may have some negative effects such as cultural effects．
This study has examined the effects of growth of tourism on Zanzibar’S economic
growth,tourism benefits to local people and tourism effects to Zanzibar’S culture．
Zanzibar opened its doors to the tourism sector mainly in 1 980s after the fall of clove’S
price in the world market．Now tourism is traditionally counted懿a second pillar of
the economy in Zanzibar and it contributes about 1 4％of GDP and expected to grow
upt021％by2012．
Specifically,the study tested three hypotheses．These ale：-The improvement of
tourism sector has high contribution tO the Gross Domestic Product of Zanzibar,local
people of Zanzibar benefited from growth of tourism and culture of Zanzibar is being
affected by tourism．
The study’S findings showed that the improvement of tourism have a significant
contribution to the economic growth of Zanzibar,the local people benefited from
tourism and the culture of Zanzibar Was to a certain extent be堍affected by tourism．
III
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
Although the studs findings indicated that tourism has significant contribution to
the economic growth，tourism call be a more potential economic sector to Zanzibar．m
important“ng is for the Government to rectify all weaknesses mentioned and putting
in actions(in policy implications)those suggestions provided，like improvement of
infrastructure and the uses of participatory approach for current and future development
of Zanzibar
Key words：Economic growth，Tourism，Real Gross Domestic Products，culture
and local people．
W
LIST oF TABLES
1’able l：Tourism’S Revenues⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯3I
Table 2：Data for sectoral contribution to RGDP of Zanzibar⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯j5
Table 3：Data’S for sectoral contribution to RGDP⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．44
Table 4：Estimation ofequation⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯钙
Table 5：Suggestions on how the Governmem could do to
Improve the tourism sector⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯j55
V
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1：Conceptual framework of effects of tourism to local people,⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．22
culture and economy⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯．．⋯⋯．⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．22
Figure：}：Organization of the study⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯24
Table l：Tourism Revenues；Source ZRB．CFT and Ministry Of Agriculture in
Zanzibar⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯．⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯．34
Figure 3：OCGS：Graph shows number of tourists who visit Zanzibar．⋯⋯⋯⋯．36
Figure 4：Sources OCGS：Tourism and Economic Growth⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．39
Figure 5：Relationship between tourism and economic growth⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯40
Figure 6：Tourism related sector’s trends in Zanzibar⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯47
Figure 7：Relationship between tourism and economic growth．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯48
Figure 8：Characteristics of tourism and economic growth．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯49
Figure 9：Tourism and Zanzibar’S Economic Growth⋯⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．．50
Figure 10：Different Ways in Which Tourism Can Improve the Economy⋯⋯⋯。50
Figure 11：Respondent’S Location⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．51
Figure 12：People’S knowledge about tourism．⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯．．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯52
Figure 13：Local People and Benefits from Tourism⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．52
Figure 14：Ways in Which Local People Benefited From Tourism⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯53
Figure 15：Tourism and Its Effects on Culture⋯⋯．⋯⋯．⋯．⋯⋯．．．i⋯．⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯53
Figure 16：Different Ways in Which 1burism Affects Zanzibar’S Culture⋯⋯⋯⋯54
Figure 17：0ther ways tourism can affect culture⋯．⋯⋯．⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．⋯⋯．⋯⋯⋯⋯54
Ⅵl
A CRONYMS
GDP
GNP：
OCGS：
RGDP：
SPSS：
ACRONYMS
Gross Domestic Products
Gross National Products
O伍ce of Chief of General Statistics
Real Gross Domestic Products
Statistical Package for Social Science
MKUZA： Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini
UNESCO：United Nations Educational，Scientific and Cultural
Organizations
ZTC：
ZTGA：
El冲：
TSE：
IASET：
Zanzibar Tourism Commission
Zanzibar Tour Guide Association
Economic Recovery Program
Tourism Society of England
International Association of Scientific Experts Tourism
UNWTO： United Nations World Tourism Organization
LEDC。S：Less Economically Developed Countries
V
独创性声明
本人提交的学位论文是在导师指导下进行的研究工作及取得的研
究成果。论文中引用他人已经发表或出版过的研究成果，文中已加了
特别标注。对本研究及学位论文撰写曾做出贡献的老师、朋友、同仁
在文中作了明确说明并表示衷心感谢。
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(保密的学位论文在解密后适用本授权书，本论文：口不保密，口
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Chapter 1：Introduction
CHAPTER 1：INTRODUCTIoN
1．0．Research Background
rids chapter presents a research background,literature review about tourism and
economic growth，relationship between tourism and economic growth，it also outlines
about project aims，statement of the problem，study hypothesis，unique project
characteristics，research methodology,scope and limitations of the study and
organizations of也e study．
The role of tourism to the economic growth and to the progress of modem societies
has become a common subject among economic authorities worldwide．For this reason
many attempts are being made in order to develop tourism，it be堍amongst the most
important sectors of economic activity，to the benefit of different countries．Tourism iS
all economic activity of primary value and importance for many countries is all accepted
fact by a11(E．Hawkins&Shaun Mann,2006：United Nations，2007：Juan Bri妞Juan
Pereyra&Maria Jesus 2007：Fayyisa,f2007)．
Developing countries such as Tanzania consider tourism as a sector that could
potentially cover their needs in foreign currency Dritsakis and Athanasiadis(2000)，
Payne and Mervar(2002)．The contribution of the tourism sector is beneficial for a
country’S economy due to its influence on sectors other than the foreign exchange sector,
like：．
a．The employment sector and especially in the tourist periphery，with the direct
consequence ofrestraining the propensity to immigrate and keeping the population in its
place(Dritsakis and Athanasiadis(2000)，Payne and Mervar(2002)．
b．The business sector,through the expansion of the industrial and agricultural
production SO as to meet the increasing tourist wave，as well as the mobilization of the
international and domestic trade and the activities of various service-related industries
like transportation,telecommunications，banking and travel agencies(Dritsalds and
Athanasiadis(2000)，Payne and Mervar(2002)．
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
C．The income sector，through its contribution to the country’S aggregate income
fRGDP)．11le tourist income seems to be distributed throughout a wider population
stratum，enhancing the income of residents of less developed areas that rely heavily on
tourism during the summer months．T11is constitutes a factor of primary importance
towards strengthening the development of the periphery in developing countries．
Undoubtedly，there is a close linkage between employment and income effects but it is
not SO ultimate．Tlle direct employment and income Can easily be distinguished from the
indirect employment and income Dritsakis and Athanasiadis(2000)，Payne and Mervar
(2002)．
d．In the fiscal sector it must finally be emphasized that the tourist activity exerts
beneficial results on public economics and especially at the local level．(Payne and
Mervar，2002)．
On contrary the cultural sector although the tourism contributes to living standard
of populations in areas、枋廿l increased tourism but it has some negative effects 0n the
culture(Dritsakis and Athanasiadis(2000)，Payne and Mervar(2002)．
The development of tourism in a country lcads to increased income for the
economically active part of the population that is employed in tourists enterprises，in
addition for that part of the population,which is not employed in tourist enterprises
directly but also benefited as other economic in those enterprises that their economic
survival depends on tourism in a large or small scale(Juan Brida,Juan Pereyra&Maria
Jesus 2007)．
A balanced and harmonic growth of tourism in relation to the other sectors of
economic activity and mainly the most basic sectors，like agriculture，must make sure
the availability of types of nutrition,which are necessary for the satisfaction of tourist’S
needs or wishes．
Zanzibar as a part of United Republic of Tanzania is one of the developing
countries．Zanzibar is increasing its efforts in the tourism sector,and in recent years it
is receiving a lot of tourists from different parts of the world．Therefore it is obvious
that tourism sector contributes to Zanzibar’S economic growth．Traditionally，it is
2
Chapter 1：Introduction
believed to be the second pillar of the economy．
As far as Zanzibar is operating and improving tourism sector，it is expected that it
is benefiting more and more from tourism especially economically；SO purposely this
study was aiming at assessing effects of tourism sector‘S growth to the economic
growth of Zanzibar，to assess either local people are benefited from tourism and also to
assess the effects of tourism to aculture(at a country level)．
1．1．0．Literature of tourism on the effects of economic growth in
Zanzibar
Starting谢Ⅱ1 the definition oftourism，m Institute ofTourism in Britain(1976)as
cited in Ali．Y(1 999)，defined tourism as a temporary movement of people to
destination outside the places where they normally live and work,and activities during
their stay at that destination,it includes movement for all purposes，as well as day visit
and excursions．
According to David(1990)says that tourism has the most significant economic
effect on the less economically developed world．Tourism can offer many benefits to
less economically developed countries(LEDC’s)，firSt and foremost it has the ability to
generate excessive amounts of money and SO provide jobs for countless people giving
them the chance to escape poverty and attain a higher standard of living．Increased
revenue through tourism also means that the country’S GDPincreases therefore allowing
more money to be spent on essential public services such as hospitals and schools．
Tourism also demands more infrastructures such as roads，hotels，transport and
communications，water and electricity and leisure facilities creating a multiplier effect；
more infrastructures means more tourists and therefore more jobs and ultimately more
money．
In addition to that,for some developing countries，with very limited resources
"tourism became an engine of national growth’’whiles others saW it as a life line for the
economy(Lynn,1 992 cited in Ali．Y 1999)．Tourism has vigorously assisted the
developing counWies to correct the persistent balance of payment problems．For the first
time，in 1 984 about 300 million visitors world wide spent around 1 00 billion dollars
after reaching their destinations(Madlik,1 988 cited in Ali．Z 1 999)．砀e United
Nations estimated USD 55 billion of tourism earnings in poor countries in 1988，
1 laesls tot master’s degree Southwest University
(O’Gradrey cited in Lovel 1 992：340 as cited in Ali．Y 1 999)making it，after oil，the
largest earner of foreign exchange．It has been reported that tourism became the most
important business in 1 993，compared to oil in terms of earnings．In 1 994 tourists spent
USD 354 million．Out of these 52％Was spent in Europe，27％in America,1 6％in
Eastern Europe and Pacific and remaining 5％went to Africa and other developing
countries(The Visitors Exit Survey,2007)．
The contribution of tourism industry to the national development is obvious．It
contributes in terms of employment，rectifying balance of payment and increase foreign
exchange earnings．For instance(Cole，1996：2 cited in Ali．Y 1999)observed that for
every direct job created by the tourism industry in Zanzibar；there were other two or
three indirect jobs．
In addition，for many developing countries，which were traditionally dependent
upon primary products in export earnings，tourism has become a major SOUrCe of
foreign exchange earnings．This has been vital for such countries given their prevailing
economic conditions．Many developing countries have experienced severe deficits，
particularly in the current account of the balance of payments during past few decades．
Furthermore，they have experienced an increasing burden of foreign debt．A relatively
lli曲percentage of GDP and of the budget is allocated for foreign loan settlement、析m
ongoing civil unrests in some of these countries，the situation results in high defense
budgets．In view of this volmile economic background，foreign exchange earnings from
tourism have been important contributiOIlS to economic development．
However，whether tourism actually contributes to the economic development
depends to a large extent,on how efficient these countries are in allocating earnings
from tourism．(Balaguer and Cantavella-Jorda,2002)argued that,in a more traditional
sense，foreign exchange brought by international tourism could well be used to import
capital goods in order to produce other goods and services，leading in turn to economic
growth．T11is means that international tourists to a particular destination might
contribute significantly to finance the country’S imports．Further,they argued that，“if
those imports are capital goods or basic inputs for producing goods in any area of the
economy，then,it Can be said that earnings from tourism are playing a fundamental role
in economic development”(p．878)．Available evidence suggests that many developing
4
篡曼!曼量曼蔓曼曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼曼曼曼皇量皇曼C曼ha曼p曼te曼rIIl—：—Introduction I
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countries are able to raise a significant proportion of government revenue from
international tourism．For instance，the Wodd Trade Organization(1 998)claimed that
these countries(most of them are highly specialized tropical，tourist countries)raise 1 0
to 25 per cent of government revenue from the tourism sector．In some cases，more than
50 percent of government revenue has been generated by the tourism sector．ne
contribution of tourism to government 1．evenue，for example，accounted for over 50
percent in the Bahamas(Bird，1 99 1)and over 40 per cent in Maldives(Sathiendrakama
and Tisdell，1 987)．
Even though 0’G-rady(1990)tourism has been criticized widely for it negative
socio-cultural as well as environmental impact．Price&Harrison(1996：1)identified
that tourism is all economic activity that is imposed or at least grafted on a pre—existing
set of economic activities and traditional ways of life．Never the less tourism is a
product of three main elements；destination,hosts and the tourists．
According to Sharma,2006 made the following observation about tourism,the
contribution of tourism in the foreign exchatlge is 1 5 to 1 7 percent and the influence of
tourism is also centered in some specific areas not through out the whole nation but it
doesn’t mean to underestimate tourism because we know very little about its multiplier
effect．There is need tO take into account the foods，vegetables and fruits that tourists
take as well as employment，plus the Cl'a亿that tourists purchase．
According to the estimates of the world tourism organization the number of
International people traveling around the world will surge to 1 602 million by 2020，
while tourism receipts will reach some US$200 billion．Furthermore，the world tourism
industry,which made up roughly 10．4％ofthe world GDP in 2004，will increase to 10．9
％in2014．
In generally the aforementioned studies and reviews(about tourism and economic
growth)were mainly indicating important economic points or advantages that those
countries concerned Can enjoy from operation of tourism activities．These are like
foreign exchange eaming，employment generations，benefit to host communities or
local people and also the influence of tourism to the development of infrastructures
like roads，airports，harbor and water and electricity supply．
5
I bests for master’S degree Southwest University
On the other hand the existing studies also mentioned about negative affects of
tourism to wards culture of the society．Actually the existing researches have given
deep expressions of tourism and gave actual image showing that tourism is a potential
sector for sustainable development of many countries especially the third world
countries．Also the existing studies mentioned the need of strong strategic planning’S to
wards the improvement of the tourism by countries concerned．However the study also
shows the important element of society’S that is culture which is in danger of being
destroyed due to the tourism operation．
Even though tourism is a potential sector for the economy there must reliable data
and information and conduction of research to show the contribution of the sector tO
the economy,benefits to local people and also its effects to the society．This can help
the country to know exactly what it earns and incur from tourism，the strength and
weakness of the sector and therefore what government can do towards policy
implication in the country．Considering Zanzibar as a developing country which
operates tourism，tourism is counted as second economic pillar(traditionally)．
Consequently this study done in order to know：．
The effects of the growth of tourism sector on the economy of Zanzibar．Also
assess whether local people benefited from the growth of the tourism sector and the
impact of the tourism sector on Zanzibar’S culture．
1．1．1．Relationship between tourism and economic growth
Jacint Balaguer and Manuel Cantave lla Jorda(2000)did an assessment of
tourism as a long run economic growth factor：A case of Spanish．In their study they
used an econometric equation contained the following variables：一
Econometric equation：一
Log Yt=咖+alLogTOUSAt+a2Logqt+№
Where t=1975Quarter one⋯⋯⋯⋯1 997Quater one．
Y=the Spanish Tourism Real Gross Domestic Products．
TOUSA=Spanish tourism revenues in 1 990．
Q 2 the real effective exchange rate between a currency in particular and
currencies of industrialized countries．Jacint Balaguer and Manuel Cantave lla Jorda
found that，the long run stable relationship between economic growth and tourism
6
Chapter 1：Introduction _．1__ Ill ⋯11 Ill皇量寰
expansion exists in Spain．m good thing in their study is they used appropriate
variables and data which were available in their country to show the relationship
between tourism and economic growth in Spain．．nle relationship of tourism and
economy Can be measured through the country’S Real Gross Domestic Products,
tourism income，foreign exchange available and even employment generated by
tourism in the country,as used in the aforementioned study．The uses of these data also
depend on the availability of reliable data in the country．
Tourism in Zanzibar and its relationship can be seen through its effects to the
economy written by different SOurCeS．Even though these data are not updated and not
more reliable but cail help to show a situation for refe．rence in the country concerned．In
reality there are no separated data for tourism which are officially provided by officially
statistician in Zanzibar．
However tourism industry is all important industry for reasons other than tax
generation，it is the foreign exchange income to the local economy,it creates direct and
indirect employment,subsidiary and ancillary industries，technology transfer and
training，building and construction．For example in 2002，the impacts on the economy
of the tourism industry of Zanzibar were"-
Tourism in Zanzibar as a proportion of gross domestic product(GDP)was 14
percent,and expected to grow to 2 1 percent by 20 1 2(ten years)．Tourism has
contributed to improved living standards：in the period from 1 998—200 1，per capita GDP
increased from$21 9 to$248．It also brought foreign currency earnings were net US$
46 million in 2001 from international tourists；this is expected to grow to US$1 1 6
million in 2012．In employment at least 5,800 people are directly employed by the
tourism industry；but total employment is believed to be some 37，000 from tourism due
to the very great indirect employment and multiplier effects of the industry(e．g．fishing，
agriculture，transport，building industry，arts and crafts)．
On the other hand Economic growth has been driven mainly by the increasing
contribution and growth of the service sectors，which now represents up to 5 1 percent of
GDP．The service sector has grown at an average of 8 percent over the period(2000——
2004)，due mainly to tourism related activities．Tourism emerged aS one of the
7
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University I曼皇曼量曼曼曼!曼曼曼曼曼舅曼鼍曼量曼鼍曼量皇曼曼鼍皇曼曼曼鼍曼曼曼量曼皇舅舅曼曼皇曼皇曼皇曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼曼鼍曼曼皇舅曼曼皇曼曼皇曼
important economic activities in Zanzibar．，玎1e number of tourists visiting Zanzibar
increased by all average of 1 7．5 percent between 2002 and 2005．Tourism-related
income rose from Tshs．108．2 million in 200I／02 to Tshs．198．5 million in 2004／05
MKUZA陀007)．
In this paper，the relationship between tourism and economic growth Can be well
seen through comparing the growth of tourism sector contribution to Real Gross
Domestic Products of Zanzibar．This is because these data are officially provided and
Can be relied on．Good example is during 1 997—2000 the tourism related sector
contribution were not growing much and also the RGDP not seen to grow sharply but in
2006—2007，the contribution of tourism sector were growing rapidly and at the same
time the RGDP were growing first．See table 3
1．2．Reviews on development of tourism industry
A global perspective
Tourism is a currently recognized as one of the fastest growing industries in the
world．According to the 2005 United Nations—World Tourism Organization(UNWTO)
report，the number of international traveler’S world wide has grown from 689 million in
2000，to OVer 764 million in 2004．During the sarne period，international tourism
receipts have grown from US$484 billion to OVer 633 billion US$，this is an average
annual growth of six percent．The developed countries take the lead in the share of
tourism trade with countries such as France，Spain,UK,and USA as world leaders of
tourism．Tourism as an economic activity has gained the importance to both
industrialized and less developed countries．This is mainly attributed to its
characteristics；the sector is broadly characterized by having multiple linkages to
different economic sectors．Also，the sector is relatively more labor intensive and built
on resources(nature and culture)that developing countries have comparative advantage
of(DFID，1 999)．Globally,Least Developing Countries have benefited marginally from
this vital industry compared to the developed countries，yet tourism is still a principal
foreign exchange earner for 83 percent of developing countries(Pro—Poor Tourism
Partnership-2004)．This implies that，tourism is an important sector and also tourism has
some effects to the economic growth．
8
Chapter 1：Introduction
nle World economic developments suggest that the future of the industry is
promising．Generally，Personal Disposable incomes(PDI)in European countries and
America(Mintel一20041 have been increasing．The increased wealth coupled with the
growing tendency for people in Europe and North America to retire younger but
healthy，postulate increase of visitors from these aging populations．Further more，
emerging technologies on transportation and information predict a brighter future for
the industry as it increases even with magnificent development of the tourism industry
argued that，the rich benefit more from the industry while developing country are
subjected to negative impact of the industry particularly environmental degradation
and cultural interference．Moreover，there is vertical integration where by big
multinational companies control the business from the source market to destinations．In
this regard，the UNWTO(2002)advocates that tourism benefits should target the poor
segments of the community by promoting activities that touches them．It is observed
that,tourism success and sustainability will solely depend on partnership，which will
be able to facilitate local community’S participation．In view of this，stakeholders arc
strongly urged to have a long term view that is focused on establishing a mode of
tourism development that iS sustainable and maximizes mutual benefits particularly for
the most disadvantaged communities(UNWTO，2006：4)．In 2008，there were over 922
million international tourist arrivals，谢Ⅱl a growth of 1．9％as compared to 2007．
International tourism receipts grew to US$944 billion(euro 642 billion)in 2008．
corresponding to all increase in real terms of 1．8％on 2007．When the export value of
international passenger transport receipts is accounted for,total receipts in 2008
reached a record of US$1．1 trillion,or over US$3 billion a day(tourism Wikipedia
free cyclopedia)．
1．3。Development of Tour括m in the developing World
Tourism as aP_important industry especially in the developing countries，providing
among other things foreign exchange，income，public revenue and employment．
According to the UNWTO，tourism is one of the top five sources of foreign currency for
83％of the developing countries including those from Africa．In Kenya，tourism has
overtaken primary commodity exports of coffee and tea Oattp：wwwiafrica．tom bulletin
board／527548．htm)．Additionally,tourism has led to significant employment creation．
Tourism has generated jobs directly through hotels，restaurants，nightclubs，taxi and
souvenir sales，and indirectly through the supply of goods and services needed by
9
Thesis for master’s degree Southwest University
tourism related business．In Kenya tourism is estimated to have created about l 80．000
formal jobs and about 380，000 informal ones．In Gambia,30％of the workforce
depends directly and indirectly on tourism．In small island developing states，the
percentages Can range from 2 1％in Seychelles to 34％in Jamaica,and 83％in the
Maldives．
1．4．Challenges facing tourism sector
Despite tourism being one of the key drivers for socio—economic progress in the
destinations it is facing many challenges．Some of challenges in which tourism industry
is facing are"-
·Spread of HIV pandemic，many reports through out the world have reported about
this challenge；starting with(AIDS Brief tourism sector)they reported that‘'hotels
employees have been found to be at hi曲risk of becoming infected withⅢV雒
evidenced by their own perception of personal risk．In the Dominican Republic，the
Ibsk appears to especiaUy high among male entertainment workers who frequently
engage in sex with female tourists．These relationships occasionally involve payment
for sex and are‘not always protected by condoms．Children engagement in s敷
tourism is a growing phenomenon in some African countries like Gambia and Kenya．
At least 1,500 children engage in SeX tourism daily along the Kenyan coast,and
con胁y to prior perceptions that sex pests involved in the vice are only foreign
tourists，the report indicates that 40 percent of daose exploiting children are crooked
Kenyan men(The East African Standard,Nairobi December 1 9，2006 in
http：／www．usdoj．gov／cfiminal／ceos／sextour．htm,http：／／en；／Wikipedia．org／wiki／sexto
urism cited in Ministry of tourism，trade and Investment，2007)．
· In Zanzibar it has been written in the Situation and impact analysis on
HIV／AIDS on the tourism sector in Zanzibar,2007 that‘'the growing of tourism
compounds the mushrooming of risk behaviors．Rising tourism,which is
associated with increased business and social interactions，is believed to fuel up
both commercial sex industry and drug USe among youth．These are likely to
increase HIV transmission in the Islands”．So this is a great challenge to the
improvement of tourism and it need good strategies towards it otherwise this is
going to be more disaster．
。Another challenge with tourism industry development is that drug abuse and
drug—trafficking have become a rampant．Some of the tourism enterprises are
Chapter l：Introduction 量皇曼皇曼寡曼曼曼曼曼皇量量曼皇曼皇曼Ill皇皇曼量曼量曼鼍量皇皇曼晕曼皇曼皇曼曼曼曼量曼曼鼍曼曼曼曼皇曼曼舅舅皇量曼量曼曼曼曼曼曼量量曼曼舅曼曼曼兰曼曼
widely believed to be involved in drug-Wafficking and money laundering,and to
use the tourist investments simply as a pretext．Drug abuse by locals has also been
on the increase，particularly in Zanzibar town．There were more than 150
Zanzibar’S youths serving long term jajl sentences in India,Pakistan,Bangladesh,
Turkey，Egypt and some European countries for drug-trafficking by 1 995．Twelve
of them had been sentenced to death．In a bid to fight against drug-trafficking,the
Zanzibar government deported two Italian businessmen in early 1 995 alter
receiving reports from the International Police(Interp01)that they were notorious
drug-tra伍ckers．These Italians were among investors who had come from
Mombasa where they had invested previously,and had been accused by the
Kenyan government for promoting drug-trafficking in the coastal belt of Kenya
http：／／www．valthelsinki．fi／kmi／fad／fad-wp-2—98．htm(cited in Ministry of tourism,
trade and InvestmenK 2007)．
1．5．ProjectAims
The main aim of this research was to investigate the effects of the growth of
tourism sector Oll the economy of Zanzibar．Other aims included：assess whether local
people benefited from the growth of the tourism sector and the impact of the tourism
sector on Zanzibar’S culture．
7．6．S绍tement of the Problem
Zanzibar as a part of the United Republic of Tanzania is a state whose economy
depended more on the exportation of cloves．Soon after the fall of price of cloves in the
world market in the 1 980S’the country Was compelled to diversify its economy in other
investments especially tourism sector．Nevertheless no clear picture or enough studies
have been conducted to assess effects of tourism on the economy．Therefore，this study
assessed the effects of the growth of tourism in the economic growth of Zanzibar,its
economic effects on local people and its affects to the culture of Zanzibar．
f．7-Research hypothesis
The following were the research hypotheses：-
1．The improvement of tourism sector has significant contribution to the Gross
Domestic Product ofZanzibar．
2．Local people of Zanzibar benefited from growth of tourism．
11
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
3．Culture of Zanzibar is being affected by tourism．
1．8．Unique Project Characteristics
Based on Proenca and Soukiazis(2005)．In their investigation of impact of
tourism and economic development they used correlation of bed capacity of
Portuguese regions and the regional economic growth measured by GDP per capital
growth．They found that l percent increase in accommodation capacity in tourism
sector induces 0．0 1 percent increase in per capital income；also they found that
increases in the convergence rate of per capital income in Portuguese regions due to
tourism sector．This research is different and unique from aforementioned study
because it found that a tourism has a contribution to the economic growth of Zanzibar
as a whole and not only regionally．
Another study Was done by Fayissa,(2007)，in his study about the impact of
tourism on economic growth and development in Africa,Fayyisa used panel data of 42
African countries for the period of 1995／2004，Fayyisa explored the potential
contribution of tourism to economic growth and development within the neo—classical
framework,he observed that receipts‰tourism industry significantly contribute
both to the current level of the GDP and the economic growth of Sub-Saharan
countries also Fayyisa study based on the whole African continents to assess effects of
tourism but this has targeted Zanzibar Islands where its Government has opened its
hands to operate tourism．
Also those researches used different types of data’S and methods．For example，
Kweka,(2004)in his paper about tourism and the economy of Tanzania．In his study
he used SAM for 1 992．On the other hand,Dritsakis，2004 examined the impact of
tourism on economic Growth of Greece．In his research he analyzed the causality of
GDP exchange rate，and international tourism receipts and economic growth．However，
this study used different data,different scope，and different method of data processing
comparing、析Ⅱ1 other studies；this study used sectoral contributions to Real Gross
Domestic products in Zanzibar including contribution of tourism sector and primary
data available from questionnaires distributed in different parts of the country．
12
The last but not least is the study mentioned some social issues like what are the
Chapter 1：Introduction 曼皇曼曼曼曼皇曼舅鲁皇II一一一1 _ II II曼曼曼曼曼舅曼曼曼曼曼曼曼鼍舅曼舅曼皇鼍
benefits of tourism enjoyed by local people，effects of tourism to local people and to a
culture some thing which differentiate it from other economic studies．
1．9．0．Research Methodology(Quantitative methodology)
1．9．1．Research design
The research design selected for this study is aimed at examining the effects of
tourism’S growth to economic growth of Zanzibar,to assess whether tourism benefits
local people and assessing effects of tourism to a culture of Zanzibar．The study has
been conducted in Zanzibar where Government took some steps purposely to improve
the tourism sector in order to become all aggressive economic sector and the conm'butor
to the country’S Gross Domestic Product．
1．9．2．Research instruments
The data used in this study WaS obtained through the use of both primary and
secondary data collection techniques．The selection of these kinds of data instruments
was mainly due to the availability of data in the country concerned and the topic itself
1．9．3．Research data
1．9．3．1．Primary Data：
Questionnaires have been a major and only instrument used to get primary data；
also these questionnaires were used to know effects of tourism in a culture of local
communities，benefits of tourism to local people and effects of tourism to the economy．
The researcher selected the questionnaire approach because it Was comfortable for
respondents especially for those who were busy in their businesses were able to锄
questionnaire at a convenient time and return them to designated points．
Secondly，it gave freedom to respondents in giving their answer at their
comfortable places without pressure or any influence．
Thirdly,reason is researcher had an opportunity to reach concemed areas,
distributing questionnaires and also collecting them when she had to do SO．
Thesis for master’s degree Southwest University
1．9．3．2．Secondary Data
The secondary data used in the study were obtained from various documents
among them are：-
1．Socio-economic survey of Zanzibar 2007-2008 obtained from OCGS
office of chief government statician．These data showed the contribution of
all sectors to Zanzibar RGDP．Considering the nature of the research topic，
the researcher made more modification by doing summation of all value of
tourism related sectors contribution(transport and communication,water
and electricity,forestry and hunting，trade and services and hotels&
restaurant)．W1lile other sectors grouped into three major sectors，these were
agriculture，industry and services．
2．Data from revenues available from tourism activities done at Jozani
Forests National Reserve for a period often years from 1 997-2006．
3．Data from Commission of tourism whish shows income available for
registration of those hotels and restaurants registered and are serving
tourists．
4．Data from Zanzibar revenue board which shows different tax revenues
available from various sectors concerning tourism．
5．Tourism policy which show objectives，mission and vision of the
Government towards tourism in Zanzibar．
6．Zanzibar Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy,Overview of Tourism
Sector in Zanzibar,Tourism sector profile in Zanzibar and International
visitor’S Exit Survey,2007．
Most of Secondary data were available from different SOurCeS like Zanzibar
Investment Promotion Authority,Ministry of Tourism，and Commission for
Tourism，Zanzibar Revenue Board and Office of ChiefGovernment Statician and
different websites．
1．9．4．Research Procedures
The research started by distributing 1 00 questionnaires to different parts of
Zanzibar Island，these parts were Nung、)vi(Kendwa rocks area)，which is in the
14
Chapter l：Introduction 鼍皇皇曼曼鼍曼葛曼量皇寡曼舅1一一一1一一一．I皇North part of Zanzibar．The second area in which questionnaires were distributed
was Pete village which is near to Jozani Forests National Park(this is also potential
area for tourism)and tllird area is Zanzibar Town．Thirty questionnaires distributed
to people of Nungwi(Kendwa rocks area)，nli啊questionnaires to people of Pete
and 40 questionnaires to people of Zanzibar town．nle selection of distribution Was
influenced by the potentiality of tourism activities in concerned area which also
facilitate the availability of information required for this study．After two weeks
about 76 questionnaires returned to me，even though some of them returned before
two weeks．Despite that it was necessary for me to interact and discuss with the
local people who were not ready to fill questionnaires for different reasons，some
of them were laymen,or were scared to write any tlling，they were felt I may
misuse the information which they gave to me．Even when I explained clearly the
aim ofmy research，there was still the issue of suspicion on their part．
Another step Was the observation ofwhat I have got舶m secondary data．
1．9．5-Data processing
The empirical study involved data from Zanzibar OCGS which shows Real Gross
Domestic Products of Zanzibar of many different years but according to the scope of
this study whichhave taken into consideration a time period of ten years(from 1 997 to
2006)．The data also involved different sectors which contribute to the real gross
domestic products of Zanzibar．
These sectors have been divided into four major groups these were：-
色Services
b．Tourism related sectors
C．Agriculture
d．Industry
Where the Real Gross Domestic Products accounted as a dependent factor．
Considering the fact that Zanzibar lacks reliable tourism separated data it Was
very important to rely on available data which shows different sectors contribution to
the RGDP of Zanzibar and to add together those sectors which relate directly to
1 rlesls tor master 7S degree Southwest University
II
。-
"
tourism sector in order to find the contribution of tourism sector to the RGDP or its
relation诚th RGDP of Zanzibar．
Tourism related sectors in Zanzibar consist of trade，transportation,forestry．hotels
restaurants and electricity．
Trade：This sector relating、】l，im tourism because it includes those value of goods and
services produced in the country in which most of them targets tourists to buy and use．
For example fimits，vegetables，other foods，traditional clothes，arts and halldcrafb．
Transportation：This sector also touches direct the tourism sector because tourism
also relies on transportation inside and outside the country．
Forestry：This has been included as tourism related sector,because it is the sector
which generate revenue from many tourists visiting Jozani forest to see colobus．So the
value of service produced there is a part of tourism contribution to the RGDP through
forest．
Hotels and Restaurants：It is considered as direct related tourism sector．The value of
services produced by hotels and restaurants mainly target tourists in Zanzibar，SO it also
has its contribution to RGDP taken as tourism contribution．
Electricity：It consists of the value of electricity services which produced in the
country where large percentage is used in the tourism related activities．So in this study
electricity considered as tourism related sector，since without electricity service
tourism iS very difficult．
Other sectors are like agriculture，services and industry taken as separate sectors where
each ofthese used also to find its contribution to the RGDP．
Agriculture consisted of data for crops，livestock,and fishing．Industry consisted of
mining and quarrying，manufacturing and construction．Services consisted of da：ta for
f'mancial intermediation，real estate and business services，public administration,
education,health,other social and personal services．The processing of data Was done
by using E—view software to see a correlation between RGDP and all other f酗ors
which contribute to RGDP,in order to test which among these sectors have high
contribution or relating with RGDP．
Another step which Was the main step Was all estimation of equation for the
purpose of measuring goodness of fit．There fore all data(RODE agriculture，services,
16
Chapter l：Introduction
industry and tourism related sectors)were made all econometric equation and berg put
into E—view software in order to see their relationship．Actually this helped to kⅨ掰if
there is significant contribution of tourism to the Real Gross Domestic Product．
1．1 0．6．1．Econometric Models and Predictions
Many writers have tried to define econometric in different ways some of lhem
defined it aS the set of tools used for forecaSting future values of economic varia憾
such as a firm’S sales，the overall growth of the economy,or stock prices．Another
might say that econometric is the process of fitting mathematical economic Inodels to
real-the world data．At a broad level，econometric is the science and art of璐湎g
economic theory and statistical techniques to analyze economic data．Econommic
methods mainly are used in many branches of economics，including finance,labor
economics，macroeconomics，marketing and economic policy．Econometric melkxlS
are also used in other social sciences，including political science and sociology．
Econometric also Can be used to fmd correlation of different variabIes、)l，ith a hc如of
E—view software．Finally,if there are inaccuracies in the data,then the嘲曲ing
estimates from the econometric model will also be inaccurate．Thus，econometric
knowledge has been used in this research report because a report is concerned with
economic data,and the need of f'mding effects of tourism sector to the Real Gross
DomestiC Products of Zanzibar．
Econometric models are statistical models used in econometrics．An econometric
model specifies the relation that is believed to hold between the various e咖IXlliC
phenomenons under study．
The econometric model used in this research paper was-·
RGDP=po+pA鲥c宰Agric+pIIId宰Ind+pseⅣ牛Serv+pr订td掌Trltd
Where RGDP 2
dependent variable
130 ：Constant
BA鲥c=Coefficient ofAgriculture
pIIld=Coefficient of Industry
BseⅣ= Coemcient of Services
pTmd= Coefficient of Tourism
17
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
This equation used to test the hypothesis saying that‘'the tourism sector has a
significant contribution to Zanzibar economy'’．
Similar kind of econometric model used in the research paper for assessing the
intersectoral linkages of tourism in Zanzibar by Ali，1 999．
The following econometric model used
At=a+b Et+kTt+et
Where，
A=Constant term
B=coefficient of exchange rate
Et=Exchange rate
Tt=Trend terms
et=errorterms
111e above equation used to test hypothesis saying that“Is there any relationship
between the tourism activities in Zanzibar with investment and exchange rate?’’
according tO researcher’s knowledge no saalle study with the same title that used above
econometric model．
1．9．6．2．Variables
V撕ables used in this research paper were of two types：·
1．DependentⅥlriable
2．Independent variables
Real Gross Domestic Product(RGDPI of Zanzibar Was dependent variable．While
Agriculture(A鲥c)，Industry(Ind)，Services(Serv)and tourism related sectors(Trltd)
wore independent variables．
18
Chapter 1：Introduction
1．9．6．3．SPSS
SPSS which stands for statistical package for social science is all essential feature
of statistical analysis for many social science researchers．It is also widely used in
business．However,SPSS is also a company with many products other than the
statistical package for which it is best known．It is all integrated collection of
quantitative analysis software that is particularly popular、析tll social sciences
researchers．In other words SPSS can be defined as a desktop and larger computer based
quantitative analysis package．In today’S life SPSS is very important due to the
following：- ，
1．It enables a researcher performing many data management and statistical analysis
tasks．
2．SPSS enable managing of data wim case selection,file reshaping．and creating
derived data wikipedia．org／wiki／Spss．
3．Also SPSS is potentially for processing and analyzing questionnaire responds．
心far as this research used questionnaire it Was also important to use SPSS software．
7．10．Significance of the study
Considering the rate at whichtourism sector in Zanzibar is growing，the findings of
the study are significant in a number of ways．Firstly the study’S recommendations will
guide Zanzibar Government in policy formulation in the tourism sector and put them in
actions in order to increase efficiency and profitability ofthe industry．
Secondly,the study will contribute to the knowledge base at Southwest University．
Thirdly,the study report may be a good reference to studem in Zanzibar who will be
illtcIrested in conducting economic research especially in tourism sector．
In addition the study will be a highlight to Statistical office in a new arrangement
of data which will give clear data’S about tourism as a separate unit or sector．Not only
that but also it will give challenge to stake holders in innovating different things which
will help tourists being busy and spend longtime in Zanzibar Islands．
19
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
Last but not least the study will help those culture’S stake holders to realize
negative effects from tourism and make them fred potential ways to remove tlnsc
negative effects．
f．11．Research Scope and limitations of the Study
Scope
This study examined the effects of tourism sector growth 011 Zanzibar’S economy
by using time series data of Real Gross Domestic Products and other relevant factors
which touch directly on the tourism sector from 1 997—2006．The choice of this p贸湖is
influenced by the availability of data for most of the variables that were used in the
study．The analysis was limited to the Zanzibar as a part of United Republic of Tanz衄ija．
Amajor caveat of the study Was articulated by the difficulties to mobilize sufficient md
reliable data as a resuk of poor data management and availability in the country．
Limitalions
20
·The model used in this study does not capture all variables that determine lhe
effects of growth of tourism on the economic growth of any country like Zama'．b缸．
Naturally since tourism is intersectoral，its study should cover wider aspo恕in
order to assess its effects on the economic growth(A1i．Y 1 999)．For econometric
analyses it needs even 30 years data in order to give clear results．In addition the
study takes 1 0 years into account、析tll expectation of satisfying aim of the
research．A part from that for the sake of assessing the effects of tourism 011 local
people and for assessing effects of tourism to a culture of Zanzibar only珥呻
data Was used．
·Also during the collection of primary data questionnaire some of respondents
were not willing to provide information as reflected in their responds．
·Some of the respondents did not show that they appreciate this work because
of political interests．
· Only seventy six out of one hundreds questionnaires were returned．
Chapter I：Introduction
·Time constraints and the difficulty in obtaining accurate and reliable data,and
the fact that data were drawn from different sources，error of measurement and
data inconsistency all might have marginally affected the accuracy of this paper in
one way or another，because they were collected for different purposes and not
merely for the sake of this study．In addition tO that the data on lourism
contribution in Zanzibar are not officially compiled together bY official stateeian
in Zanzibar，but provided separately for hotels and restaurants，trade and lL聊irs
which are considered as direct activities concerned with the tOurism sector．
·Lack of financial support，the research Was funded by the researcher孤ld this
made it difficulty for the researcher to get the all of the required data and this in
a way affected the quality of research．
f．f2．Conceptual framework of tourism and its effects on
economy,culture and to local people
Based on conceptual framework of Trekking tourism，which considered
tourism as one of the factors，effects economy,local people and culture，there are
three dimensions，these are：一
a．Economic dimensions
b．Environmental dimension
C．Cultural dimension
According to the framework，tourism call have the economic dimension which
Can generate income and this income will benefit local people，on the other hand，
tourism affects environment and its final effect is going to local community砒the
same point when tOurists reach tO the destination they always come with their
attitudes and norms in which they t11i11I【are true but different with local people
culture，this is inducing change tO local community too．
21
Conceptual framework of effects of tourism to local people，cultureand economy
Figure 1：Conceptual framework of effects of tourism to local people，
Culture and economy
Based on the Trekking framework,I come up with the conceptual frame work
which base on my country’S situation(Zanzibar)and for the purpose of the present
research．Figure 1 above shows that tourism sector call cause the following effects：一
a．Provision of goods and services to tourists．
b．Consumption by tourists．
C．Cultural exchange．
Thus，the operation of tourism sector lead to Government and private people to
provide variety and sufficient goods and services to tourists，this lead to tourist’S
consumption by buying different goods and services and this Can generate income to
bom Government and local community．In addition，cultural exchange Can occur due to
tourism operation because tourists come from different cultural backgrounds and this
Chapter l：Introduction 曼曼I一一； 一i I曼皇曼曼曼曼皇!蔓曼曼舅曼鼍皇曼皇曼曼罡曼鼍皇曼曼曼曼曼曼蔓曼曼
definitely have an impact on the local people．nlis is the same situation that Zanzibar
might face the provision of tourism in Zanzibar must be with provision of goods，
facilities and services to satisfy demands of tourists at the grille time tourists ale willing
and able to buy different commodities and services for the period that tlley are staying
in Zanzibar as a result this bring some revenue to the Government and also benefit some
local people like the case of Jozani in Zanzibar where tourists visit and there are some
residents projects SO at the end the revenue earned is distributed to both Government
and local people who use these money for their social welfare．As regards to cultural
issues．Zanzibar has its own culture which is rooted in Islamic religion．Tourists are
likely to influence cultural changes despite the length of their visit to Zanzibar．
7．13．Organizations of the Stu
The study is organized in the division of six chapters．Chapter 1，explains about a
research background，literature review about tourism and economic growth，relationship
between tourism and economic growth,it also outlines about aims of the study,
statement of the problem，hypothesis of the stub research methodology,econometric
models and predictions，econometric methods，econometric variables and SPSS．
Significance of the study,scope and limitations of the study and also organization of the
study．
Chapter 2 provides introduction to growth concept,economic growth and
measurement，theory of economic growth and econometric models and prediction．
Chapter 3 explains overview of Zanzibar economy in relation to tourism sector,
tourism and economic growth,Zanzibar tourism and data sample，characteristics of
tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar,relationship between tourism and economic
growth，challenges facing tourism sector in Zanzibar．
Chapter 4 provides analysis of secondary data by using E—view software and
analysis of primary data by using SPSS also have been analyzed．
Chapter 5 give out discussion about tourism and economic growth，different ways
that tourism improve Zanzibar economy,Zanzibar tourism and data sample，Zanzibar
economic growth and data sample，relationship between tourism and economic growth
in Zanzibar,characteristics of tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar,effects of
tourism to local people and how are they benefited from tourism,peoples suggestion on
howto improve tourism and affects oftourism to culture ofZanzibar．．
Chapter 6 provides conclusion and recommendations．
23
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
The Organization of the study is illustrated by the following chart：
24
oRGANISATIoN OF THE STUDY，S CHART
Figure 2：Organization of the study
Chapter 1：Introducti011
Conclusion
This chapter has provided research background,it gives out literature of tourism
and economic growth the introduction of tourism in relation to economic growth,
relationship between tourism and economic growth,it also outlined about project aims，
statement of the problem，study hypothesis，unique project characteristics，research
methodology,scope and limitations of the study and organizations of the study．
25
Chapter 2：Economic Growth Theory
CHAPTER 2：ECONOMIC GROVvTH THEORY
2．0．／ntroduction of Growth concept
Growth should always be understood as a process and not a product．Growth is all
interdisciplinary field which contains different programs and deals、析th innumerable
variables like economic，social，political，gender,cultural，religious and environmental
issues．Growth field carl be highly influenced by economic thought，as exemplified by
the fact that economic growth has been primarily measured by increases in Real Gross
Domestic Products(RGDP)．
2．1．Economic growth's concept and measurements
Economic growth means the positive change in the level of production of goods and
services by a country over a certain period of time．Economic growth Can also be defined
as the increases in activities in an economy．Economic growth is a term that is generally
measured by the amount ofproduction in a country or region over a certain period oftime．
Additionally,economic growth is a term used to indicate the increase of total Gross
Domestic Product(GDP)．Economic growth Can be measured through different ways，for
instance through the use of Gross National Products(GNP)and Gross Domestic Product
per capital(GDP per capital)and Gross Domestic Product(GDP)．Always GNP is used as
an alternative measure of GDP and GDP per capital is used to compare countries of
different size of population．For example，if a country’S GDP in one year is US$1 00
billion and the next year is 125 US dollars，then there has been an economic growth of 25
percent．On other vein,the GDP was only 75 USD billion；the growth would be negative
25％．In most cases，it is still called economic growth,even though it is the contraction of
the economy．ff a country had 2 quarters of lower GDP than the previous quarters it is said
to be in recession．Recession tends to come twice a decade historically and some are more
severe than others．However,the definition of depression has never been set by
economists；Sumce to say that economic growth is generally on the negative side for
many quarters or annually．Sometimes the public may be tempted to measure economic
growth through job creation numbers．This is especially impormt to the general public，
who could hardly care less about production numbers．Ifjobs are being created that means
wealth is being created and spread．This may perhaps，one of the best measul℃s of
27
I 11esis for master 7S degree Southwest University
economic growth．Ifjobs ale not being created or ale being lost,this generally leads to a
depressed economic state especially for those affected individuals and perhaps for the
region at large．Therefore，economic growth may have different meaning．
Oattp：llen．wildpedia．org／wk／economic_．growth)．In order to measure real economic growth
the RGDP real gross domestic product is sufficient because it considers the inflation of
the country．
2．3．Theory of economic growth
Provision of services which ale conceming with tourism sector is also a
service production at the same time it is still in the service category,Campbell
R．McConnell and Stanley L．Brue explained two fundamental ways in which a society
call increase its real output and income：-
1．By increasing its inputs of resources(1abor,capital，entrepreneur and land)
2．By increasing the productivity of those inputs(units of produced goods per hour)
Other things remain constant(ceteris pefibus)increases in land labor capital and
entrepreneurial resources yield additional output．Nevertheless economic growth also
occurs through increases in productivity-measured broadly as real output per unit of
input．Producti咖rises when production is better organized and managed．Example
about onethird ofUS．Growth comes from more inputs．
Considering McConnell theory,the improvement of tourism sector like building of
infrastructures，increasing hotels，guest houses，transportation and communication leads
to the economic growth of a country as these enable a country to provide the high quality
of services that in turn attract more tourists in the country．These tourists ale expected to
spend their money Oll different goods and services and there by generating more income
for government in terms of taxes，employment to people，and also higher Gross Domestic
Product．
2．4．Econometric Model and Prediction
Econometric Can be defined in different ways some writers defmed it as the
process of fitting mathematical economic models to real-world data．At a broad level，
28
Chapter 2：Economic Growth Theory
econometric is the science and art of using economic theory and statistical techniques
to analyze economic data．
Econometric methods mainly are used in many branches of economics，including
finance，labor economics， macroeconomies， marketing and economic policy．
Econometric methods are also used in other social sciences，including political science
and sociology．The advantage of econometrics is that elasticity Can be calculated for all
demand(and supply)determinants and Can be compared．This comparison of elasticity
is useful because this enables one to see what factors have the largest impact on
changing demand．On the supply side．the use ofeconometrics allows one t0 determine
the responsiveness of quantity supplied with respect to price．Econometric also call be
used to fmd correlation of different variables with a help of E—view software．
Econometric models are statistical models used in econometrics．An econometric
model specifies the relation that is believed to hold between the various economic
phenomenon’S under study．
The econometric model used in this research paper Was"一
RGDP 2 po+pA断c奉Agric+plnd木Ind+pScw幸Serv+pTrltd宰Trltd
Where RGDP=dependent variable
130：：Constant
pA鲥c=Coefficient ofAgdculture
phId =Coefficient of Industry
psenr= Coefficient of Services
所棚= Coefficient of Tourism
This equation used to test the hypothesis鼹yiI培that‘'the tourism sector has a
significant contribution to Zanzibar economy”．
Considering the need of this research,the researcher used econometric knowledge
and Was very useful for finding relationship between tourism and economic growth and
alSO determines the contribution of the sector to RGDP of Zanzibar．
29
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
2．5．Variables
Variables used in this research paper were of two types：一
1．Dependent Variable ：
2．Independem variables
Real Gross Domestic Product(RGDP)of Zanzibar was dependent variable．While
Agriculture(A西c)，Industry(Ind)，Services(Serv)and tourism related sectors(Trltd)
were independent variables．
30
鼍III— Chapter 3：Introduction ofTourism and Economic Growth in Zanzibar i]_一I．
I I l _o皇!曼皇曼曼曼曼舅曼曼皇曼鼍曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼量
CHAPTER 3：INTRODUCTION OF TOURISM AND
ECONOMIC GROVvTH lN ZANZIBAR
3。0。Overview of Zanzibar economy in relation tO tourism sector
The islands of Zanzibar are located about 40 kilometers from the African continent,
in the shallow coastal waters of the Indian Ocean．Zanzibar is a state which is under the
Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar and part of the United Republic of Tanzania；
with limited autonomy in some economic matters．It has an autonomous government
with its own president，cabinet legislature and the judicial system．Zanzibar now is
following the multiparty system of democracy where two corn／lion political parties
which are Civil United Front(CUF)and‘‘Chama Cha Mapinduzi’’(CCM)in which
CCM is the ruling party at the moment and Honorable Dr．Amani Abeid Karume is the
President of Zanzibar．Although Zanzibar has other political parties like Chama Cha
Democrasia Na Maendeleo(CHADEMA)and Tanzania Democratic Association
‘‘TADEA’’all these other parties are not very competitive like CCM and CUF
(httpllen．wikipedia．org／wiki／Zanzibar#Economy)．Although Zanzibar has autonomous
governments but still there are some matters that are considered as union matters such
as security,political parties，and higher education．
Zanzibar is an archipelago made up of Unguja and Pemba Islands，with smaller
islets like Tumbatu,Kibandiko，Chapwani，Bawe，Chumbe，Mnemba,Lathan and Uzi
within territorial waters．Zanzibar has a total area of 2,332 square kilometers、^，ith
Unguja Island covering 1 464 square kilometers(62％)and Pemba Island is about 868
square kilometers in which Unguja Island is bigger than Pemba．Zanzibar lies at latitude
6 degree South and longitude 39 degree east,72 kilometers from the coast of Tanzania
mainland and only 1 50 kilometers south of the equator．The climatic condition of
Zanzibar is characterized by tropical hot and sunny．Due to its location,tempered by
bouts of northern monsoon winds between the months of December and April and South
West monsoon winds between April and November．The heavy rainy season starts in
March and lasts for several weeks(www．zanzibarinvest．org)．As part of Zanzibar,
Unguja island has three regions known as North,South and West；six districts named as
South district，North‘‘A’’district，North‘‘B’’district,Urban district,Middle district and
West distriet．Pemba has two regions and these ale North and South regions，and three
31
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University 暑曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼量鼍曼量曼曼曼罾量曼鼍量量曼曼皇曼曼曼曼曼曼曼鼍曼蔓I蔓皇曼曼曼曼曼舅皇曼皇曼皇曼詈曼鼍曼曼鼍曼量量曼曼蔓曼曼曼量量毫
districts which ale Micheweni，Chakechake and Wete．Kiswahili iS the national
language in Zanzibar and majority ofpeople about 98％are Islamic religion believers．
Zanzibar maintains an open,reasonably‘'unregulated’’economic environment to
foster increased investment within the context of its overall development objectives．
Zanzibar has a population of one million and seventy two inhabitants(MKUZA，2007)，
and the country’S GDP of Tanzania shillings(Tshs．)1 83 billion which translates to a
per capita income of Tshs 5 1 8 equivalent to US$41 5 in 2007 also the inflation rate Was
13．1．This synopsis indicates that Zanzibar is a Least Developed Country(LDC)．The
Zanzibar economy is heavily dependent on agriculture，fisheries，business activities and
tourism．Despite a significant contribution of revenue from tourism in the Zanzibar
economy，it is believed agriculture is still the backbone．It contributes about 75 percent
of foreign exchange earnings，employs about 60 percent of the labor force and provides
30 percent of tax revenues(MKUZA，2007)．A part from that Zanzibar Was the largest
producer of cloves in the world after the revolution of Zanzibar in 1 964 up to the end of
1 970s．Zanzibar Was depending more on the clove’S sales revenues as the backbone of
the country’S economy．Unfortunately during early 80’S the clove price in the world
market declined from$9000 to US$600 per tone in the late 1 970’S to 1 997 respectively；
this caUSed by the increase in quantity of cloves supplied by other countries like
Indonesia and Singapore．Zanzibar now ranks a distant third with Indonesia supply 75
percent of the world clove compared to Zanzibar’S 7 percent．Due to the decrease in
price of clove on the world market Zanzibar Government decided to look for other
alternatives that could bring the country’s foreign earnings(ZIPA；1 996)one of them is
expansion of tourism sector．
Zanzibar iS endowed with a variety of tourist attractions．’Ihese include Stone town
UNESCO world heritage site，with its wealth of historical buildings and traditional
Swahili culture，marine environment characterized by coral reefs suitable for snorkeling
and diving，offshore islands and coral reefs(Changuu,Chumbe，Mnemba)，big game
fisll，sea turtle and dolphins，sand beaches and extensive water areas USed mostly for
traditional fishing activities．In addition,other attractions include historical cultural sites
(the ruins of Maruhubi Palace，the ruins of Mtoni Palace，the Kidichi and Kizimbani
Persian Baths and the Mangapwani Slave Cave)，Jozani Forest reserve(renowned for its
diverse and rare botanical species and the presence of special monkeys“red colobus”，
32
Chapter 3：Introduction of Tourism and Economic Growth in Zanzibar
fruit bats，antelope and wild pigs，)．Arts and crafts；(production of wooden chests and
doors，picture frames，brass，copperware and jewelers)，Pemba is also a beautiful island
characterized by good cloves smell it is known aS jazar alkhudra which reCallS green
island in Arabic language．Among its tourism attractions are off shore islands and coral
reef(Kojani，Misali)sand beaches and also extensive water areas and Ngezi Forest
Reserve containing various wild birds，Pemba flying box，antelope，fruits bats together
、析m special monkeys．In addition to essential oil factories．and Eco—Tourism(Pemba
has a more undulating landscape than Unguja and is densely vegetated淅m botll natural
forest plantations．Another factor that is attractive for tourists from both Unguja and
Pemba is a society of honesty，kindness，humane and incomparable hospitality evident
in the amicable and spontaneous‘'jambo’’of a warm and friendly people‘‘karibu mgenL
mwenyeji apone’’meaning welcome the guest SO the host is soothed
(www．zanzibartourism．net)．Considering the above factors the Government recognized
that tourism is potential sector to lie on and is going to bring many benefits to the
economy of Zanzibar like the increment of country’S Gross Domestic Products GDP,
creating employment opportunities and even expansion of market．Also the
Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar created this economic environment in order to
create a diversifying economic base(ZIPA；1 996)．
3．1．Tourism and Economic Growth
Tourism as a commercial entity came into force in mid—eighties as a result of
policy a change and the invitation of priva：te investors to investment freely in this
sector．Since then,tourism has emerged as a substantial contributor to the total output
value increasing its share from 5．1 percent of GDP in 1995 to almost 5．5 percent by
1 999．There has been an increase in the earnings derived from this sector to a level of
US$2,91 8 millions in 1999 compared to US$2,838 millions in 1998 up from US$
1,97 1 millions in 1 995．Traditionaly it is believed to be the second pillar of Zanzibar
economy MKI7ZA(2007)．
Economically tourism Can bring number of benefits like increasing revenues to
the GovemmenL creating employment opportunities，improvement of infrastructures as
well as expansion of market for goods and services．
Even though is difficult to measure the contribution of tourism sector in Zanzibar
economy due to the database system which does not have tourism data as separate unit．
33
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
nle following fire revenues earned by the Government of Zanzibar in different years
valued in terms of Tshs from different sources which are believed to be touching
tourism sector．
A TABLE SHoWS THE GOVERNMENT OF ZANZIBAR，S REVENUE
EARNED FROM ToUIUSM
YEARS AIRPoRT REsTAURANT HOTEL TOUR JOZANI ZCFT
SER、，lCES LEVY LEVY OPERAToR FOREST
1996 8 6．9 0．29 O．27 l 0．3
l钙17 8．57 n．06 0．36 O．36 O．36 0_3
19鳃11．27 9．67 0123 O．18 1．Ol 0_3
19鲫11．84 1．26 0．2l O．1l 9．6 0_38
2咖13．84 1．16 O．36 O．15 O．7 4．2
2∞l 23．17 237 O．63 025 l 4．6
2∞2 31．14 3．16 0．9 0．4l O．9 4．98
2∞3 37．49 6．56 1．54 O．67 3．7 2．47
2咖14 42．08 15．2l 4．78 O．85 8．8 1．79
2∞5 48．69 29．54 6．64 2．16 O．7 2．1
20嘶4．9l 1．6l 9．38 3．6 1．5l 0．4
TIable 1：Tourism Revenuesl；Source ZRB，CFT and Ministry Of Agriculture in
Zanzibar．
Considering the fact that Zanzibar lacks reliable tourism separated data it was
very important to rely on available data which shows different sectors contribution to
the RGDP of Zanzibar and to add together those sectors which relate directly to
tourism sector in order to find the contribution of tourism sector to the RGDP or its
relation with RGDP of Zanzibar．
Tourism related sectors in Zanzibar consist of trade，transportation,forestry，hotels and
restaurants，and electricity．
1
Figure in billions Tanzania shillings．．One US dollar now is approximately to 1300 Tanzania
shillings．
Chapter 3：Introduction of’l。oufism and Economic Growth in Zanzibar
Trade：Tms sector relating、Ⅳitll tourism because it includes those value of goods and
services produced in the country in which most of them targets tourists to buy and
consume。For example fruits，vegetables，other foods，traditional clothes，arts and
handcrafts．
Transportation：TIlis sector also touches direct the tourism sector because tourism
also relies on transportation inside and outside the country．
Forestry：nlis has been included弱tourism related sector．because it is the sector
which generate revenue from many tourists visiting Jozani forest to see colobus．So the
value of service produced there is a part of tourism contribution to the RGDP through
forest．
Hotels and Restaurants：It is considered嬲direct related tourism sector．The value of
services produced by hotels and restaurants mainly target tourists in Zanzibar，SO it also
its contribution to RGDP taken as tourism contribution．
Electricity：It consists of the value of electricity services which produced to the
country where large percentage is used in the tourism related activities．So in this study
electricity considered as tourism related sector，since without electricity service
tourism is very difficult．
Other sectors are like agriculture，services and industry taken as separate sectors
where each of these used also to find its contribution to the RGDP．
111e following are data sample for RGDP and other economic sectors contribution in
Zanzibar． ’
DATA FOR SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO RGDP(IN TERMS OF
TANZANIA SHILLINGS)IN ZANZIBAR
l鲫17 1998 1999 20∞ 20叭2∞2 2帅3 2∞4 2∞5 2加7
RGDP 180．1 182．9 197．0 204．0 222．O 241．0 255．7 272．O 286．0 303．O
Industry 24．5 21．6 22．3 19．4 20．9 24．2 28．6 32．5 34．5 4I．2
Agriculture 67．5 66．3 71．5 70．2 81．9 79．6 83．4 85．3 87．2 109．3
Services 54．1 64．1 63．9 72．2 80．4 93．3 97．6 104．6 93．4 79．48
Tourism 46．9 46．5 51．7 56．oo 55．1 59．6 57-3 61．2 77．90 82．6
Table 2：source OCGS：table show contribution of different sectors to theRGDP
35
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
3．2．Zanzibar tourism and data sample．
Persistent problems in clove production and its market have had adverse effects
on Zanzibar’S earnings which are desperately needed for economic growth and the
counlry’S development．This has forced the Zanzibar government to look for other
alternatives and thus tourism has emerged as a substantial and significant contributor to
total RGDP
Figure 3：OCGS：Graph shows number of tourists who visit Zanzibar．
Because of security reasons the number of tourists visiting Zanzibar declined from
87，5 1 1 in 2002 to 68，365 in 2003．As a result the contribution of the sector to GDP and
its performance also declined．However the trend Was reversed in 2004 where the
number of touristS visiting Zanzibar increased to 89，695 thus leading to an increase in
the share of hotel and restaurant activity in total GDP．The sector constitutes about 5．8
percent of GDP and it grew by 1 1．5 percent in 2004，in 2007 1 43，283 tourists came to
Zanzibar and tourism sector contributed 1 7．2 percent to the GDP．In addition tourists
who arrive in Zanzibar are from different parts of the world like Scandinavian countries，
German,United Kingdom，Italy，France，Belgium，United States of America,Kenya,
Australia,Japan and Holland．The 2005 Visitor’S Exit Survey showed that Zanzibar
received tourists from 56 countries but mainly from Italy and Spain．This is because of
the existence of Italian’S hotel investments as well as arrangement of direct flights
from Italy and Spain to Zanzibar during peak season．A part from that in every year
Zanzibar participates in the Spanish tourist’S exhibition known as FITUR．This
exhibition involves display of tourist products，traditional dances，arts crafts as well as
participation in seminars and workshops．Furthermore，political stability in Zanzibar
36
Chapter 3：Introduction of Tourism and Economic Growth in Zanzibar
ma．kes attraction tourists and some of them even decide to have weddings on high
quality beach ofZanzibar．
Currently．Zanzibar has a total of 309 hotels／guest houses with 583432 rooms and
1 1,432 beds which are officially registered and known bY the government，Zanzibar
Commission for tourism(2008)．Potentially to serve tourists，most of these hotels骶
privately owned and few of them are owned by the Government(Commission for
Tourism，2008)．In addition，two hotels are five star hotels namely La Gemma De“llest
and Zamani Resort(Kempinski)and started operating in 2000(International Visitor“S
Exit Survey，2007)．
The following institutions are presently involved in Zanzibar tourism：
Public Sector
·Ministry of Trade，Industry，Marketing and Tourism：m Ministry is
responsible for tourism policy and governs the tourism in the country where
Commission for Tourism aS the executing agent．
·．Ministry of Communications and Transport—Department of Aviation：m
Ministry is responsible for the management of the Zanzibar International
Airport．
·．Zanzibar Ports Corporation：The government corporation took over the
Zanzibar ports in 1 997．Board of Directors of the corporation is made up of
active government officials，retired civil servants and retired national forces
0fficers．
·．Zanzibar Commission for Tourism：砸s organization has been respomible for
tourism since 1 996．Headed by ail Executive Chairman，and Executive Secretary,
a Director for Planning and Administration and a Director for Marketing and
Promotion-all four positions are appointed by the President．m ZCT in Unguja
has 6 1 staff plus 1 9 staff in the Pemba office．曰1e ZCT has two information
0伍ces．one at the harbor and one at the airport．
2 Researcher believes that for the moment these dam are out of date and needed to be updated by
Institution concerned．
37
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
·Zanzibar Hotel Tourism Training Centre：Established in 1 992 with
UNDP／ILO assistance and has a staff of 56，which includes 1l Instructors．m
principal reports to ZCT．
·Zanzibar Tourist Corporation：The government owned corporation headed by
a General Manager．It has three small(eight roomed)budget class hotels in
Pemba and a ground tour operation which entails two old buses in Unguja．
·．Zanzibar Investment Promotion Agency：ZIPA has been controlled by the
Ministry of Finance as a statutory body since 1 99 1．It is headed by a Director
General and has a total staff of around 60 persons．ZIPA acts as a one—stop—shop
for foreign tourism investors，while ZCT deals with local investors．
Private Sector Organizations：-
·．Zanzibar Association ofTour Operators：Formerly had 61 members．
·Zanzibar Tourist Guide Association：The ZTGA has 60 members and has
been in existence since 2001．Wi也around 325 tourist guides recently licensed
by ZCT，ZTGA．
3．3．Characteristics of tourism and economic growth in
Zanzibar
Tourism in Zanzibar characterized by many characteristics some of them are like：
Seasonal demand：In Zanzibar a peak season is on August and Dec to January．
Length of stay：always tourism stay in Zanzibar for 3 to 4 days and maximum of 7 days．
This iS due to the fact that there are no varieties of tourism activities which can make
them busy and stay for long time．Always tourists spend their time in white sand
beaches，in diving，visiting historical sites and visiting forest of Jozani．(International
exit survey 2007)．
Tourists’countries of Origin：In Zanzibar Italians dominate with 25％of total tourists
followed by the UK with about 1 5％．European tourists as a whole comprise nearly 75％
of all tourists to Zanzibar and live have shown a stead growth in Demand．The US and
Canada acCOunt for about 8％of tourists in Australians and Newzelanders 5 percentage
and the only other significant groups and South Africans(with annual fluctuations
between 1 and 4 percent and Kenyan’S about 3 percent Overview of tourism sector,
(2005)．
38
Chapter 3：Introduction of Tourism and Economic Growth in Zanzibar
Numbers and Growth of tourists Arrivals：Tourists arrivals is flexible and sometime
affected by some factors like political instability of the country for example during 2000
number of tourists were 97，1 65 but in 2001 it decreased to 76329 tlliS was due to
political instability in the country soon after election．However during 2005，2006 the
number oftourists were 137，111，143，283 respectively．
Considering the economic growth of Zanzibar which actually growing，even
though not very sharply,the tourism related sectors seen to grow slowly during 1 997 to
2004，and RGDP were growing slowly but during 2005—2007 the tourism related sectors
contribution grows while RGDP grows more．
The following Graph shows Characteristics of tourism and economic growth
TOURISM AND ECONOMlC GROWTH
400
‘o 300
-1-
馨200
三100
O
移“79’’j’=’?j’“ i强
．▲j
绀∥∥骂
—lib一一蜮鬟霉一㈣I Jg目
1 3 5 7 9
NUMBER 0F YEARS F
1997-2006 —．．卜rgdp
Figure 4：Sources OCGS：Tourism and Economic Growth
3．4．Relationship between tourism and economic growth in
Zanzibar
As all economic sector potentially for economic growth of any country,tourism is
considered apositive related sector、析t}l economic growth in Zanzibar．This relation call
be seerl where the number of tourists decrease in Zanzibar and the trend of RGDP also
seen to be shacked．The following graph of RGDP and tourism related sectors indicate
that in the beginning years of 1 997 to 2005 there Was slightly increase in contribution of
tourism related sectors to RGDP at the same time RGDP were increasing not sharply but
39
∞Zo卜。山∞D山卜《J山叱
=∞一叱30卜oz《
Loo叱Lo山3J《>
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
during 2006—2007 tourism related sectors increase more and RGDP increased more and
nloI．e．
The following figure shows relationship between tourism and economic growth：
Figure 5：Relationship between tourism and economic growth
3．5．Challenges of the tourism sector in Zanzibar
Always any sector have successful and also challenges it faces．The following are
some challenges of tourism sector in Zanzibar：-
·Poor and inadequate infrastructure services such as road networks，airports，
power，and water facilities．
·Weak linkages between tourism and other related sectors particularly
agriculture，low capacity for collecting revenue，low skills in tourism
management as well as dilapidating historical，heritage and tourist attractions．
·Other challenges include the existence of multiple trade licensing agencies，
application of non-tariff barriers on Zanzibar’S exports，existence of multiple
trade／exports examination points，absence of an expoa strategy and poor
information as a result of inadequate market research and market intelligence．
·Poor data management which make it difficult for the country’S decision
makers and researchers to know exactly what is it‘S exact contribution of the
sector to the economy．Tourism master plan(2005)．
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
CHAPTER 4：RESEARCH ANALYSIS
4．0．Analysis by Using E-view(Based on Secondary data)
T11is chapter presents the analysis of tourism and economic-growth．tourism and
local people benefits and tourism and its effects to culture of Zanzibar and other
relevant and important points were analyzed in order to give the research report more
value．
The analysis of tested hypothesis through E—view and SPSS in order to satisfy the
aim of the paper is presented．
The following were the hypothesis of this paper：·
1．m improvement of tourism sector has hi曲contribution to the Gross Domestic
Product of Zanzibar．
2．Local people of Zanzibar benefited from growth of tourism．
3．Culture ofZanzibar is being affected by tourism．
4．1．D-Tourism and Economic growth
In order to tests a hypotheses says“The improvement of tourism sector has high
contribution to the Real Gross Domestic Product of Zanzibar．E．view software has
been used，at the same time to find important things due to the nature of this study like
relationship between tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar,characteristics of
tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar,Zanzibar tourism and data sample，
economic growth and data sample the same software have been used for analysis．
As already explained before，the regression model used in this paper,the
econometric model by using e-view program(software)has been used to find the
goodness of fit of the model on which the main hypothesis has been tested．
Consequently the following criteria have been used to reach the desirable results：一
R squared：It is the fraction of the sample variance of Yi predicted by Xi．It helps
to tell whether the regressors are good at predicting the values of the dependent
variables in the sample data at hand．Consequently,if the R squared is near to one，then
the regressors produce good predictions of the dependent variables in that sample in
the sense that the variance of OLS(the ordinary least square estimators)residual is
smaller compared to the variance ofthe dependent Variable．
41
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
Another criterion is the t-statistic．This is always used to test a null hypothesis
that the populations mean takes on a particular value．If n is large；the t--statistic has a
standard normal sampling distribution when the null hypothesis is true．
A third criterion is“overall”regressions，F—statistic，it test the joint hypothesis
that all the slope coefficients are zero(the F-statistic which computed for the null
hypothesis)．
Considering the reference of t and F statistics．the confident interval c缸be
rejected if the probability is greater than 5 percent．
Therefore the current research paper equation is：·
RGDP 2 Do+pA鲥e*Agric+Hind木had+pseⅣ乖Serv+pmtd+Trltd
Where RGDP is the Real Gross Domestic Products，Agric is Agriculture，Ind is
Industry,Serv is services and Trltd is tourism mimed sectors．
Consequently,po is Constant，pA鲥c，pllld，pScn，，p讹d means Coefficient of
Agriculture， Coefficient of Industry,Coefficient of Services and Coefficient of
Tourism related sectors respectively．RGDP considered as dependent variable while
agriculture，services，industry and tourism related sectors considered as independent
variables．
Starting with dependent variable(RGDP)：It refers to the value of all final goods
and services made within the COUI'IU'y,measured at constant price．In this case RGDP is
a dependent variable since it depends Oil different sectors．In other words is the
summation of values of all sectors of goods and services produced in the country
(Agriculture，Industry,Services and tourism related sectors)．
RGDP used to see its relation with other sectors of the economy in Zanzibar
including tourism，in order to see either it has positive relation or effect to the
economic growth of Zanzibar．
42
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
Coming across Independent variables：-
Agriculture(A鲥c)：1’llis represents the value of production in Tshs6’，it includes
values for fishing，crops，and livestock in Zanzibar(researcher excluded forests
production value because it is relating with tourism and included it in tourism related
sectors)．
Industry(Ind)：This presents the money value of production in Tshs；it includes
Milling and Quarrying，Manufacturing and Construction．
Services(Serv)：Represent the money value of service produced in the country in
Tshs．It includes financial intermediation,Real estate，Public administration,and
education,health and other social and personal services(Researcher excluded trade，
hotels and restaurants and transport because they are concerning witll tourism and
instead counted them with tourism related sectors)．
Tourism related sectors(Trltd)：It represent the value of services produced
which are directly related to the tourism in Zanzibar in terms of money value((Tshs)．
These sectors are trade，hotels and restaurants， forests and transport and
communication．111e researcher grouped these sectors together as far as there is no
officially data for total contribution of the tourism sector in Zanzibar．These sectors
have been added together,even though each one has been explained in order to make
clear why it has been used in this research model：-
Trade：Tllis sector relating witll tourism because it includes those value of goods and
services produced in the country in which most of them targets tourists to buy and
consume．For example fruits，vegetables，other foods，traditional clothes，arts and
handcrafts．
Transportation：Tllis sector also touches direct the tourism sector because tourism
also relies on transportation inside and outside the country．
Forestry：，nlis has been included as tourism related sector，because it is the sector
which generate revenue from many tourists visiting Jozani forest to See eolobus．So the
value of service produced there is a part of tourism contribution to the RGDP through
forest．
3
For each US dollar is equal to about 1300 Tshs．
43
Thesis for master’s degree Southwest University
Hotels and Restaurants：It iS considered as direct related tourism sector．The value of
services produced by hotels and restaurants mainly target tourists in Zanzibar，SO it also
its contribution to RGDP taken as tourism contribution．
Electricity：It consists of the value of electricity services which produced to the
country where large percentage is used in the tourism related activities．So in this stul蚵
electricity considered as tourism related sector，since without electricity鼹=n血跫
tourism iS very di伍cult．
Estimation of the equation：The tested hypothesis through this estimation of the
equation was the improvement of tourism sector has a contribution to the Real Gross
Domestic Products of Zanzibar．Thus the model has the following null and real
hypothesis：-
H0：：pTdtd≤0 against H1：pTrItd>0
Where H0：Null hypothesis
HI：True hypothesis
While inequality sign of S and>means less than or equal and greater than,
respectively．
Where the null hypothesis(pTntd S 0)means that once those other variables have
been considered，tourism related sectors have no effect on the economy growth of
Zanzibar
DATA FOR SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO RGDP ON TERMS OF
TANZANIA SHILLINGS)IN ZANZIBAR
1997 1998 19鲫20∞ 2∞I 2呻2 2伽B 20舛2∞5 嬲
RGDP 180．1 182．9 197．0 204．O 222．O 241．0 255．7 272．O 286．0 3∞．0
Industry 24．5 21．6 22．3 19．4 20．9 24．2 28．6 32．5 34．5 41．2
Agriculture 67．5 66．3 71．5 70．2 81．9 79．6 83．4 85．3 87．2 l∞．3
Servic酷54．1 64．1 63．9 72．2 80．4 93．3 97．6 104．6 93．4 79．48
Tourism 46．9 46．5 51．7 56．00 55．1 59．6 57．3 61．2 77．90 82．6
Table 3：Offiee of ChiefGovernment Statician Zanzibar
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
Table 3 Represent the value of RGDP and sectoral contribution valued in terms of
Tanzania shillings．The table has been modified by a researcher and then processed by
using E—view．
Table 4 shows the result of estimation of the equation from e．view．
Dependent Variable：RGDP
Method：Least Squares
Date：03／22／10 Time：14：26
Sample(adjusted)：1997 2006
Included observations：1 0 after adjusting eIIdp0岫
Variable Coe娟cient Std．Error t-Statistic Prob．
C ．16．16739 4．1 13762 -3．930075 0．011l
AGRICIⅡ矾7I也0．760446 O．110837 6．860967 0．0010
INDUSTRY 1．4487719 0．174072 8．322607 O．O004
SERⅥCES 0．995657 0．038865 25．61820 O．0000
TRl胁SECT 1．185721 O．111526 lO．63180 O．Oool
R-squared 0．嗍23 Mesh dependent Val" 234．370D
Adjusted R-squared O．99860l S．D．dependent V盯43．91525
S．E．ofregression I．642305 Akaike info criterion 4．136931
Sum squared resid 13．钙583 Sehwarz criterion 4．288224
Log likelihood ．15．68466 F．statistic 1607．563
Durbin-Watson stat 3．080077 Probff·statistic) O．Oocl000
Table 4：Estimation of equation
RGDP=-16．16739+0．760446奉Agric+1．448729·lnd+0．995657+Serv+1．185721幸Trltd．
(4．113762) (0．110837) (O．174072) (0．038865) (O．111526)．
The standard errors appear in parenthesis beloweach estimated coefficients．The
probability of F——statistic is equal to 0．0000．
·R．Squared is O．999223．
·Adjusted R-squared is 0．99860 1．
45
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
^
The estimated ∥仃nd vary from 0，which give evidence against the null
hypothesis：pTrltd S 0．However it must be paid into attention that there is a sampling
elTOr in the estimate ∥trltd must be weighed against its sampling error．Since the
standard error of夕trltd is all estimate of the standard deviation of卢trltd．．m t
statistics of B trltd measures how many estimated standard deviation B trltd is away from
0．Consequently the available value differ from zero resulted in the rejection of H0
科ull hypothesis)．
Since the P value not more than 5％are evidence against the null hypothesis．while
large greater than 5％provide little evidence against H0．
Hence the probability of t statistic of agriculture，industry,services and tourism related
sectors ale(O．0010)，(0．0004)，(0．0000)and(0．0001)respectively whichall ale<0．05．
On contrary,R—squared is equal to 0．999223 which is close to 1 and the probability of
F—statistics is 0．0000 also very close to 0，which shows overall goodness of fit to OUI"
model．In addition，the estimated equation not only shows that the model is statistically
significant and SO rejected the null hypothesis，but also provides evidence which
indicate that tourism sector has a significant economic contribution to Zanzibar
economy．
4．1．2．Zanzibar tourism and data sample
缸far as this study analysis based on E—view software results which used to
process secondary data,the analysis of tourism sector in Zanzibar based on the same
E·view results with scattered graph drawn through the E-view as well．
The E·—view equation Was．"····
RGDP=-16．16739+0．760446幸Agric+1．448729宰Ind+0．995657幸Serv+1．185721幸Trltd．
The equation shows that the coefficient of tourism related sector is positive
(1．1885721)．
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
曼曼苎蔓!i —I = ! -= i皇曼曼鼍量皇
THE GRAPH SHoWS ToURISM SECToR TREND FoR DIFFERENT YEARS
IN ZANZIBAR
Figure 6：Tourism related sector’S trends in Zanzibar
On the other hand the graph of tourism sector trends in different years(from
1997-2006)．
Where during 1 997—2000 the sector was growing even though not for high speed．
During 2001 the tourism related sectors contribution fall down．During 2002 it raised a
little bit，in 2003．2004 it fall by relatively small amount and during 2005-2006 the
sectors contribution growth increased by all increasing rate．
4．1．3．Zanzibar Economic growth and data sample
Economic growth in Zanzibar also analyzed through the equation given out from
E．view calculations：．-
RGDP=．16．16739+0．760446枣Agrie+1．448729幸Ind+O．995657木Serv+1．185721·1’rltd．
111e equation shows Zanzibar RGDP depend on the following main sectors．
1．Industry
2．Tourism
3．Services
4．Agriculture
111e coefficient of industry is positive and bigger than all other variable
coefficients(1．448729)．
The coefficient of tourism also in positive and the second among all variable’S
coefficients ’
(1．1885721)．
47
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
Services it has positive coefficients and theⅡlird among all variable’S coefficients
(0．995657)．Agriculture has positive coefficient of O．760446 it is the fourth one．
4．1．4．Relationship between tourism and economic growth of
Zanzibar
According to the estimation on the equation done by E-view software．researcher
analyzed the relmionship between tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar base on
the following：-
From equmion：-
RGDP=-16．16739+0．760446木Agric+1．448729*Ind+0．995657宰Serv+1．185721·1矾td
In order to fred the relationship between tourism in Zanzibar we need to consider the
following Differentiation．
A RGDP／▲pIntd宰Trltd=pTrltd+▲pTntd·Tdtd／▲pTrltd宰Tdtd
Consequently▲RGDP／▲p删*Trltd=pTrltd
Where▲=change．
Considering the E-view equation and the meaning of aforementioned
differentiation the change of 1．1 85221 tmits in pTrltd will result into multiple increase of
RGDP of Zanzibar and vice versa is also true．
The following graph drawn through E-view shows also this relationship between
tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar．
GRAPH SHOWS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM ANDRGDP OF
ZANZIBAR．
48
RGDP
Figure 7：Relationship between tourism and economic growth
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
The graph shows that there is a positive relationship between tourism and
economic growth of Zanzibar because舶m the beginning tourism related sectors were
increasing and RGDP also increased and also during 2006-2007 RGDP and Tourism
related sectors were growing very first together．Even we can sketch a straight line in
the graph because of their positive relationship．
4．1．5．Characteristics of tourism and economic growth
In order to see the characteristics of tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar an
E—view estimated equation also used．
RGDP=-16．1 6739+0．760446*Agric+1．448729"Ind+0．995657*Serv+1．1 8572 1木’IHtd
Equation shows two characteristics：-
1．Tourism is the second growing sector to Zanzibar economy because the coefficient
ofits variable was positive 1．185721．
2．Economic growth of Zanzibar is dynamic like the original habit of the economy；
because it depends Oil agriculture，tourism related sector,services and industry if these
sectors f．all and RGDP f．all and vice versa is alSO true。
Agraph also shows the characteristics of tourism and economic growth of Zanzibar．
Characteristics of tourism and economic growth
RGDP
Figure 8：Characteristics of tourism and economic growth
Another characteristics seen from the graph is the positive relationship between
two variables(RGDP and trltd)．When they faJl，they fall together and also rise
together．
49
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
曼量曼曼曼皇曼曼皇寰曼曼曼舅曼曼曼曼曼曼!!曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼I毫I皇曼曼曼曼曼曼曼舅曼量曼皇曼曼皇曼曼曼曼皇量舅量曼曼皇曼鼍曼量皇量皇蔓曼
4．2．D-Analysis by Using SPSS(Based on Primary da创
All questionnaire responds analyzed through this software，for the sake of testing
second and t11ird hypothesis；including the first hypothesis SO as to give it more value．
4．2．1．Tourism and economic growth
The salIle hypothesis(The improvement of tourism sector has hi曲contribution to
the Gross Domestic Product of Zanzib砷analyzed through SPSS to make the answer
more valid by looking people’S respondents．The following graph shows：一
Respondents Who Agree or Disagree either Tourism Can Cause the Economic
growth in Zanzibar．
Figure 9：Tourism and Zanzibar’S Economic Growth
When asked if the improvement of tourism sector Can cause the economic growth of
Zanzibar respondents agreed by higher percentage(88．2％)while 9．2 percent disagreed
witll the proposition and 2．6 were not sure．
4．2．1．1．Different Ways in Which Tourism Can Improve the Economy
50
Figure 10：DifferentWays in Which Tourism Can Improve the Economy
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
Different reasons from respondents have been mentioned to justify their acceptance
of the idea that improvement of tourism sector improved economic growth of Zanzibar
these were：一3 1．6 said tourism improved economy but not for the individuals or local
people，1 5．8 percent said because of improvement of infrastructure，10．5％said because
of expansion of markets of goods，23．7％did not respond，7．9 percent because of
availability ofemployment，10．5％because ofavailability ofGovernment revenue．
4．3．0．Location of respondents answered the questionnaires
On the other hand the second and third hypothesis were tested by using data from
questionnaires and also processed by the SPSS．The following shows analysis of those
questionnaires responds：
Location of Respondents
Figure 11：Respondent’S Location
In figure 1 1，it shows that participants to this study came from different parts of
Zanzibar．There were 28 participants from Pete or Jozani area representing 36．6 percent
of the total sample，20 from Zanzibar town representing 26．3 percent and 1 0
Participants from Kendwa representing 13．2 Of total sample and N吼g丽1 4
representing 1 8．4 percent of the total sample．
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
4．4．People's Knowledge about Tourism
Figure 12：People’s knowledge about tourism
As shown in figure 1 2，85 percent of the participants indicated that廿ley understood
what tourism was．Fifteen percent of the total sample indicated that they had no
knowledge about tourism．
4．5．0．Local People and Benefits from Tourism
Figure 13：Local People and Benefits from Tourism
According to figure 13，86．85 percent of the respondents in this study agreed that
tourism benefits local people where as 1 3．1 5 disagree that tourism benefits local people．
52
Chapter 4：Research Analysis 皇曼曼曼皇曼蔓I一————一--一I II I皇
4．5．1．How Local People benefited from tourism
Figure 14：Ways in Which LocalPeople Benefited From Tourism
Figure 1 4 shows that local people in Zanzibar benefited from tourism activities
through different ways．呦one point six 3 1．6 indicated that they are benefited by
selling their products around,25％benefited investing in hotels or restaurants，3 1．6
percent employing themselves as tourist guides and 1 1．8 percent by learning foreign
languages from tourists．
4．6．DI Tourism a门d Its E，．，ecfs Oft Cultore
Figure 15：Tourism and Its Effects Oil Culture
As for tourism and its effects Oil the culture of Zanzibar,54 respondents(71呦
agreed that tourism has an impact Oil the culture while 21 disagreed about the same
issue．As shown in figure 7．
53
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
4．6．1．Different Ways in Which Tourism Affects Zanzibar’s Culture
Figure 16：Different Ways in Which Tourism Affects Zanzibar’S Culture
Participants to this study were asked to tick for different ways that tourism affects
the culture of the people of Zanzibar．Out of 76 respondents；3 1．6 percent said tourism
affect culture through influencing people’S dressing style which could be strange，26．3
percent said tourism affect culture by influencing people to strange behaviors，27．6％
said tourism affect culture by making people behave contrary to the teachings of Islamic
religion and 1 4．4％did not answer this question
4．6．2．Other Ways in Which the Culture of Zanzibar Can Be Affected
By Tourism
Figure 17：Other ways tourism can affect culture
Other effects of tourism on the culture of Zanzibar that have been mentioned by
respondents were increase in prostitution(1 1．8 percent)of respondents，facilitation of
54
Chapter 4：Research Analysis
drug trafficking 1．3 percent，youth losing original behaviors(1．3 percent)and youth
changing habits 1 1．9 percent．Majority of the respondents 73 percent did not respond
to the question．
4．7-Different Ways That a Government Can Do To Improve a
Tourism Sector
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
REDUCE TAxFoR FOREIGNORs
5 6．6 6．6 6．6
TO ArrRACTMORFr0URISTS
GIVEⅣ口LOYNME-rr
6 7．9 7．9 14．5
OPPORTUNrr正S TO LOCAL PEOPLE
EDUCATIONABOUTTOURISM 5 6．6 6．6 21．1
M^D『T^Dj AIoCAI CUL叽琅E&
ll 14．5 14．5 35．5
Vmid RELIGl0N TEACHINGS
NO ANSWER 2 2．6 2．6 38．2
CREATE T0U】RJSM WHICH BENEFrr
40 52．6 52．6 90．8
LOCAL PECIPLE
CREATnqG CONDUCⅣE
7 9．2 9．2 l∞．O
E】qV承ONMENT FOR TOURISM
Total 76 100．0 100．O
Table 5：Suggestions on how the Government could to Improve Tourism sector
Table 5 presents different recommendations that participants in this study made to
the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar in order to improve tourism sector and also
in order for tourism to benefit local people．These were 52．6％of respondents ask the
government to create tourism which benefit local people，l 1％advised the Government
to maintain a local culture and religions teachings，7％asked the government to create a
conducive environment for tourism，26％did not respond to the question,6．1 percent
government should provide education about tourism．6．6％recommended decrease in
the tax imposed on tourists in order to increase number of tourists coming to Zanzibar，
55
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
and 7．9 percent asked the government to give priority to local people in the employment
opporttmities available in the tourism sector．
CONCLUSSION
Tllis chapter has already analyzed available data by E—view software and
SPSS．Those primary and secondary data have been analyzed．In generally chapter
shows that there is significant effect of tourism to Zanzibar RGDP both primary data
and secondary data show there is contribution of RGDP to Zanzibar economy．There is
also a positive relationship between tourism and economic growth in Zanzibar．Also the
issue of tourism’S affects to a culture of Zanzibar has been analyzed，where tourism can
be seen to have affects in culture of Zanzibar and also tourism benefits local people．
56
Chapter 5：Research Discussion 曼量寰曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼!曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼曼曼曼舅曼!曼舅舅曼!曼!曼曼曼曼曼曼蔓曼!曼曼曼曼皇曼曼皇曼曼曼曼鼍舅曼W _ i蔓
CHAPTER 5：RESEARCH DISCUSSION
5．0．Tourism growth and economic growth of Zanzibar
The main aim of the study was to assess the effects of tourism growth on the
economic growth of Zanzibar,while other aims were to assess whether local people
benefited from tourism and also to assess whether tourism affects culture of Zanzibar．
刀砖results of the study have already been reported in the previous section．These
results will be interpreted or given meaning using a comparison against review of
related literature。乃旧discussion points are guided by the hypotheses and related topics
which targeted to satisfy those aims of this research report．
Different studies have been done in order to asSeSS the impacts of tourism in
economic growth．One example is，Oosterhaven(2005)conduced a study on the
impact of international tourism on Chinese economy．In his study,it Was shown that
there Was a small dependence of Chinese GDP on international tourism of 1．64 percent,
but also the same study indicated that even though at that time the impact of
international tourism was still small．nevertheless it has potential for tourism．TIlis
result is different、析nl the current research results．Another example is a research of
Bichaka Fayissa,(2007)．By using a panel data of 42 African countries for the years
that span from 1 995 to 2004，Fayissa explored the potential contribution of tourism to
economic growth and development within the conventional neoclassical framework．
nle result showed that receipts from the tourism industry significantly contribute both
to the current level of Gross Domestic Product and the economic growth of
Sub—Saharan African countries．Kweka,(2004)in his paper about tourism and the
economy of Tanzania,he demonstrated the potential contribution of tourism for
economic growth in Tanzania．His study findings indicated that tourism expansion has
substantial impact on the economy勰shown by increase in the real GDP,total welfare
and exports．Durbarry,2004 reported that his investigation on co integration and
causality between tourism and economic growth in Mauritius also found that tourism
has contributed to the economic growth．Further he claimed that tourism has a
significant positive impact on Mauritania economic development．The aforementioned
study’S results are similar from this study’S results because the results given by E-view
calculation revealed that tourism growth has a significant contribution to the Real
Gross domestic products of Zanzibar．The study’S result also evident that tourism iS a
57
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
potential economic sector not only for the current economic growth but also for future
sustainable development of Zanzibar Islands．As far嬲the coefficient of tourism
related sectors were the second one this evidenee that tourism is the second pillar of
Zanzibar economy statistically we can say that．Therefore in generally the tourism
sector is a potential sector for Zanzibar economy．Also now people have more
awareness witll tourism．private sector’S more participation and promotion done by
Commission for tourism also helps the growth of sector and the economy as well．
However there are factors like political instability that sometime happen(even
though is rarely)in the country Can actually decrease contribution of the sector in the
economy嬲indicated in chapter f．our．graph shows in 2001 tourism fall down more
than all years in a sample，this caused by some political interference that appeared after
election done in 2000 in Zanzibar．However the quick growing of tourism and tourism
related sectors in 2006—2007 happened because of relatively growing of some
infraStructure where one among the goals of revolutionary Government of Zanzibar is
to improve infi'astructure for development of the country．“Since September 1 1，2001，
Zanzibar has suffered a series of shocks to its tourist industry；these follow the earlier
effects of the 1 995 and 2000 elections，which also set back tourism and harmed the
economy．Of greatest impact were the travel advisories issued against Zanzibar from
November 2002一February 2003，which led to a downturn of more than 40％in the
annual visitor numbers．’’ Zanzibar tourism sector profile at www：ll
www．tanzaniainvest．corn．
On the other hand the results鼢questionnaire analysis which have been done
by using SPSS showed that,most of respondents accepted that tourism improves
Zanzibar economy．Even though，respondents have no idea about economic fields，but
for them to see increasing of hotels，employment of members of their society,selling
their products to hotels，construction of roads are also part of economic growth．．
Consequently,this study confirms that there is significant contribution of tourism to
Zanzibar economy．
However，calculation done for this study also missed some important data like total
revenue available to the state from tourism，this means that it is possible that tourism is
a potential and economic pillar of Zanzibar嬲usually said，but actual revenues or
expenses from tourism are not well known．On the other hand Khandaroo(2007)in
58
Chapter 5：Research Discussion
his paper about transport infrastructure development found that tourists from Europe or
America and Asia are particularly sensitive to the Island’S transport infrastructure．111e
tourism sector in Zanzibar lacks sufficient infrastructure especially airport facilities
(International Exit Survey，2005)．Also Zanzibar lacks of guaranteed electricity，it is
getting electrici够through submarine cable from Tanzania mainland but some time
island misses electricity for number of days．
Also the system of payments，it is believed that Zanzibar does not directly benefit
from tourism because most of the visitors pay directly to foreign agencies in their
respective countries before beginning their journey to the spice island．The only
visitors who seem to pay directly to local agencies are the SO called”backpack tourists”，
whose expenditure while in the country is very minimal www．zanzinet．org／Zanzibar,
(2004)．This also is the factor which minimizes the contribution of the sector to the
Government because if tourists are starting paying their expenditures before coming to
Zanzibar,the government iS loosing the revenues．
5．1．Different ways that tourism improve Zanzibar economy
One study done in Zanzibar to assess the tourism sector and found that Tourism in
Zanzibar also estimated employs about 38，000 other Zanzibaris who are engaging them
selves in income generating activities that are indirectly or directly linked to tourism as
a means of survival(Haji，2004 cited in by Ministry of tourism,trade and investments，
2007)such activities include handcraft,shops and taxi business．
Even though there were no exact studies that found different ways that tourism
Can improve economy which look exactly the same like those mentioned in this study,
this study found that tourism improves economy through,giving employments
opportunities，improving infrastructure，expansion of markets，and availability of
government revenues．However some respondents mentioned the sensitive iSSUe that
tourism effect the economy but not to majority of individuals．These also evident that
even if tourism improves the economy but tourism is not yet benefiting majority of
individuals and this why some respondents mentioned that tourism benefit economy
but not majority of local people．
On the other vein the responds also mean that the first hypotheses of this study
59
_ml量曼曼曼詈曼鼍曼曼皇曼曼T皇h曼es曼i量s 曼fo蔓r量m曼as曼t舅er曼’曼S皇d鱼eg曼r曼e曼e曼So曼u曼t曼hw曼e曼s曼t曼Un曼i皇ve曼r曼si量t≤y曼皇璺曼量舅量曼曼曼罾曼舅
was correct that tourism effect Zanzibar economy，the problem is these answers from
questionnaire respondents misses statistical evidence data but it has some sort of reality
because respondents were also stakeholders who evidem wi也their own eyes about
tourism progress．
5．2．Relationship between tourism and economic growth
Dritsakis(2004)examined the impact of tourism on the two words economic
growth of Greece．He analyzed the causality of GDP exchange rate，and intemational
tourism receipts and economic growth，and found a strong causal relationship between
exchange rate and economic growth．Proenca and Soukiazis(2005)in their
investigation of co,elation between the bed capacity of Portuguese regions and the
regional economic growth measured by GDP per capital Growth．Proenca and
Soukiazis found that 1％increases in accommodation capacity in tourism sector
induces 0．0 1％increase in per capital income．Another study was done by Jacint
Balaguer and Manuel Cantavella Jorda(2000)they did all assessment of tourism as a
long run economic growth factor．They found that．There is long砌stable relationship
between economic growth and tourism expansion exists in Spain．
111e aforementioned studies’findings are relatively same to the f'mdings of the
study which shown that the coefficient of tourism related sectors variable which shown
that the coe街cient of tourism related sectors vailable Was positive 1．1 8522 1．砸s
evident that the change of 1．1 8522 1 units of inputs in tourism related sectors will result
into multiple increase of RGDP in Zanzibar．In this sense there iS a need for
considering this trend and make sure institutions concerned work with tlliS reality．
On the other hand the graph given by E-view shown the dynamic situation
(sometimes tourism related contributions are hi曲and some time low,this due to the
number of problems but commonly is the weak sectoral linkages between tourism and
other sectors of the economy in Zanzibar(Ali．Y 1 999)in his paper about the
assessment of intersectoral linkages between tourism and other sectors of the economy
in Zanzibar is poor．
This is the reason also for the tourism contribution not to grow well and stable or
at all increasing rate．Also inadequate infrastructure deteriorates the development of
tourism in Zanzibar．However during the year 2007·2008 the sector’S contribution
seems to rise quickly,this is due to the promotion efforts done by the commission of
tourism in different parts of the world especially in Italy．
Chapter 5：Research Discussion 曼曼!I————一——曼曼曼曼量量曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼蔓曼曼曼量皇曼曼曼
5．3．Zanzibar Economic Growth
Economic growth cover a wider meaning，simply it refers to increase in the
quality of goods and services produced in the country．Economic growth Call also be
achieved through increase of unit of inputs in different sectors or units of production．
These are like labor,capital，land and entrepreneur限．McConneU and L．Brue)．
Tourism is now Zanzibar’S biggest industry,easily outstripping the outstripping
the trade in spices，traditionally the islands biggest foreign currency earner and the
second pillar of the economy Ministry of tourism，trade and investment，2007．Tourism
in Zanzibar employs directly an estimated over 8000 people(Vussuf,2005 cited in by
Ministry of trade and tourism，2007)．The aforementioned literatures are the evident
that tourism is the second pillar of the economy some thing similar to the findings of
this study．The study analysis showed that Zanzibar economic growth depends on four
main sectors which are agriculture，tourism，industry and services where tourism
appeared to be the second strong sector．As far as the aim of this paper focused more
on tourism sector and its effects on economic growth,also in this paper analysis
showed that tourism is the second pillar of the economy and that was the statistical
evidence provided in the previous chapter．
However the Government must be very carefully and innovatively for this rising
of economic and challenges like Poor management of data should be considered
seriously SO that the country will be aware of what is earning and expenditures out of
tourism sector．
5．4．Location of Respondents
As shown in the previous chapter,those who answered this study’S questionnaires
are from different areas like Pete or Jozani．Zanzibar town,Kendwa and Nungwi．11le
study found also 36．6％of all respondents were from Pete．this shows their awareness
to wards of research and also towards tourism sector,also this is the society which get
a share of 1 5％out of income earned through tourism activities done in Jozani forests，
and actually they are using these money for development projects in their village like
building of schools and qur-an classes．Others were 26．3％from Zanzibar town,
people of Zanzibar town are busy people but tlley also understand people in general
education and they have awareness of tourism business some of them engage them
61
nesis for master’S degree Southwest University
selves in tour guide．hotel business and restaurants．Also 1 3．2％from Kendwa while
14％from Nungwi．In generally the location of respondents from different parts
evident that this study is more valid as far as it included people from different parts of
the Island who are believed to be stakeholders in the tourism industry and therefore
information available here have reality because it did not touch one part location of
people but distributed questionnaires to different people of the island．
5．5．Peoples Knowledge about Tourism
Skill and knowledge are some of essential components of community capacity
building(Bopp 2002：Kwan，2003)．There are a number of studies(392)on tourism
development which indicated that the most barriers to effective tourism development
were a lack of skill and knowledge about tourism．Infarct，the lack of tourism
knowledge is a critical barrier that not only directly limits the ability of local people to
participate in tourism development⋯．．Mosscaado，(2008)．In case of people’S of
Zanzibar．This study has found that among respondents to the questionnaires most of
them understood tourism(85 percent)while 1 5 percent did not know what tourism is．
This gives hope that Zanzibaris understand tourism concept and there fore their
understanding Can lead them to participate in improving the sector,to treat tourists well
and even protect them where necessary,they Can also continue being friendly to
tourists．There is common say from the former president of Tanzania Honorable Ali
Hassan Mwinyi once said‘‘Zanzibar ni njema atakae aje’’which means‘'Zanzibar is a
peaceful and beautiful place，all are welcome'’．So the situation shows that most of
Zanzibafis understand tourism and they are not barriers to wards tourism development．
Even though more education especially professionally about tourism operation is
needed to stakeholders especially in village areas where tourism is operated．This Can
help to minimize the problem of employing people of near by countries to take part in
hi曲positions in hotel management．
5．6．Local People and Benefits from Tourism and how they are
benefited from tourism
The current study’S results show that many respondents who are local people
agreed that tourism benefits 86．85 percent while only 1 5 rejected the idea．Actually,
local people benefited even though not much,because their living standards were not
seen to change SO much but at least they are getting money to satisfy basic needs．For
62
Chapter 5：Research Discussion
those who are lucky to get employment opportunities like people of Jozani，tourism
helps them because at the end of each financial year,the community is gets money as
their share from income earned from different projects inside Jozani forest．They have
Bridge Project,hand crafts and the forest itself which contains many unique red
colobus which it is believed that they are not available in any part of the world except
Zanzibar．Respondents also mentioned different ways on how they benefited from
tourism like investing in hotels around(25 percent)，employing themselves as tourist
guides(3 1．6 percent)，by learning foreign languages(11．8 percent)and selling some
products to hotels around 3 1．6 percent．
Tourism employs directly an estimated over 8000 people(Yussuf,2005 cited in
Ministry of tourism，trade and investment，2007)．Tourism in Zanzibar also estimated
employs about 38，000 other Zanzibaris who are engaging them selves in income
generating activities that are indirectly or directly linked to tourism as a means of
survival(Haji，2004 cited in by Ministry of tourism，trade and investment，2007)Such
activities include handcraft,shops and taxi business．It Was also reported from BBC
news that”The farmers are benefiting．they sell their crops at a higher price than what
they used to do．nle fishermen do the same，”said Mr．Mohammed the executive
secretary of Commission for tourism in Zanzibar Mr．Mohammed said most of the
development projects like the schools and medical clinics are being taken care of by
the investors who are in the villages．BBC NEWS(2004)．
Actually the Government should recognize these and find more ways to make
individuals people to benefit in consideration that stake holder’S resources are the one
which are utilized in tourism SO the important thing is also to make sure there is
individual advantages，and the fact that local people’S life seen not changing much．The
important锄ng is the Institution must arrange themselves to wards leading individual
people’S benefits from tourism,Government should give loans tO local people and SO
that they Can do business activities that attractive for touristS and at the same time
improves their living standards．Tllis also a challenge for local people to find different
innovation in entrepreneurship even for small scale in order to d0 different business in
order to increase their living standard as far as there is market expansion from tourism．
Local people should find loalls in order to establish different business activities．
63
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
5．7-Tourism and Its Effects on Culture,Different Ways That
Tourism Can Affect Culture and Other Ways功af Tourism Can
Affect Culture
During their stay in their destinations，they interact with local residents and the
outcome of their relationship is the changes in the host individuals，value systems，
labor divisions，family relationship，attitudes，behavioral patterns，ceremomes and
creative expressions(Cohen,1 984 cited in R．Conrady and M．Buck 20 1 0)．In this
study result showed that 71 percent of respondents agreed that tourism affect culture in
Zanzibar while 2 1 percent disagreed about the same issue．TIlis is similar to what
Cohen found．Also the current study has mentioned different ways that tourism Can
affect culture，for instances by influencing people to strange dressing styles，
influencing people to strange behaviors，(others remained silent)and by making people
going contrary to the teachings of Islamic religion．Also the study found other ways
that tourism Can affect culture，these were like：youth changing behaviors，prostitution,
and facilitation of drug trafficking loosing original behavior．This evident that is true
say of the people that tourism is source of cultural distortion in Zanzibar．Also this
show how much people care and sensitive about their culture，strong谢th their culture，
a culture which mainly influenced by Islamic religion,that is why most of them did not
hesitate to agree with the fact that tourism affect Zanzibar culture and tried their level
best to give their comments on how the Government Can do to recover the situation．
However some of respondents seen to be satisfied and decide to remain silent about the
issue of culture and tourism．Probably their reasoning is as we have already opened OUr
doors towards tourism we have to ignore some things，while others say for the case of
dressing styles tourists are not going to wear beach clothes in the streets but t11ey wear
these kinds of clothes while they are on beach．111e problem is those concerned
institutions which understate this issue but the researcher sees consideration of
people’S culture is not a simple issue but it is the basic to wards the development
especially in tourism．So for the Government this is a challenge that need consideration
and time to work on in order to find proper ways to minimize possible effects of
culture in Zanzibar which are contributed by tourism．Even religious institutions Can
participate in this issue because they Can provide correct knowledge towards Islam
which call enable policy makers and stakeholders to do well．
Chapter 5：Research Discussion
5．8．People's Suggesffons to the Government on How to
Improve Tourism in Zanz，6ar
即1e important thing in the development of any sector is idea from the
stakeholders’．Omondi(n．d)in his research of investigating the impact of tourism in
Kenya mentioned that the nearby communities should be consulted on tourism
development．According to Omondi，if people are made up to feel they are partners it
empowers them．1he study also has found many suggestioIls from stakeholders who
call help the tourism sector to improve for the benefit of local people and the state as a
whole．Some respondents recommended that the Government should reduce tax and
there fore more tourists will come and the Government will ealTl more money,give
employment opportunities to local people，education about tourism，creation of tourism
which would benefit local people and creation of conducive environment for tourists．
Considering the results of this study especially in this issue of peoples
recommendations towards tourism the researcher thinks that the Government must
change，it must have participatory approach that allows stakeholders to provide their
views especially during policy making process，SO that will bring quick development
because this will enable to overcome some weaknesses and also to know what are
exactly people’S needs and their preference．
65
Chapter 6：Conclusion and Recommendations
i!ll鼍曼曼曼曼皇曼皇曼曼皇曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼量曼曼!曼曼曼曼曼曼苎曼曼曼曼量曼曼曼量曼曼曼曼曼!曼曼曼曼皇曼舅舅舅曼曼曼曼皇曼量曼量皇
CHAPTER 6：CoNCLUSIoN AND RECoMMENDATIONS
6．0．Conclusion
This chapter provides conclusions and recommendations which based on the
findings presented in previous chapter(chapter five)．Also suggestions of the reSt臻r℃h贸
ale provided in this chapter including her views and what should be done to correct
some of the identified problems．
The study has assessed the Effects of tourism to the economic growth of Zanzibar．
It has also looked at the benefits of tourism to local people of Zanzibar and examined
the effects of tourism on the culture of Zanzibar．
Both secondary and pdmary data have been analyzed through E—view and SPSS
software’S respectively．Secondary data have been analyzed through E—view software to
see whether there is a significant effect or contribution of tourism tO Zanzibar economy
(RGDP)，results shows that there is a significant contribution or effect of tourism on
Zanzibar economy．Primary data which have been processed through SPSS shown that
there are some effects of tourism to the culture of Zanzibar．Also local people are
benefited from tourism even though not significantly，but at least those who Welt'e
involved in tourism or tourists could satisfy their basic needs especially food and
clothing．In addition primary data shown that tourism has contribution to economic
growth of Zanzibar．
Even though major weakness of tourism industry is the unavailability of compiled
and reliable data about tourism contribution to the economic growth of Zanzibar,its
total expenditure and revenues is an issue which make researchers in dilemma in their
decision making．
Although tourism is benefiting local people but they are still not satisfied that’S
why most of them identifying to a Government about giving a priority to them Ooeal
people)in employment instead of foreigners and also mey need reasonable education to
enable them to give tourists the quality services．
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
Generally tourism Call be a pillar of the economy，but that is possible if extra
efforts are taken especially in rectifying some weakness especially in the availability of
tourism data(separated data)which call assist in making reasonable suggestions，
policies and planning and put them in actions not only that but the issue of Zanzibar
culture is not simple tllil坞because it touches and affects stakeholders also．
反2．Recommendations
The study has unveiled various weaknesses in the tourism industry which hinder
the growth of tourism．In order for Zanzibar to enjoy economic fruits of tourism such
weaknesses have to be rectified．From the conclusion provided in section 6．1，the
following recommendations are given：-
1．It is possible for Zanzibar to enjoy more economic fruits of tourism by
improving its economy through tourism industry if they are going to rectify
weaknesses which are mentioned in the study．
2．Zanzibar should select a special committee which may consist of economists
and staticians胁all Government Ministries and private sectors who are also
tourism stakeholders，to collect and compile tourism data and thus Can make
easy availability of tourism data in the country which Call show exactly what are
real expenditures that Zanzibar incurs for tourism industry and what is real
revenue that Zanzibar incur from tourism industry and in generally to show the
contribution of the sector in Gross Domestic Products．
68
3．The government should explain clearly some aspects of local culture to
tourists，For example t0面stS who come to Zanzibar should wear decent clothes
and observe the culture of the people like in Ramadan where people of Zanzibar
are fasting．Government Can prepare catalogues explain cultural aspects of
Zanzibaris which can be distributed to hotels，restaurants，museums and other
areas where tourists have the tendency of visRing．Also religious leaders should
participate in these efforts to make sure the culture of Zanzibar which is
influenced by Islamic religion not destroyed by a tourism sector．
4．Payment of tourism expenditures should be done within the country and this
will give an opportunity for the government to increase its earning．
5．Priority should be given to local people in employment instead of welcoming
Chapter 6：Conclusion and Recommendations
鼍曼曼曼曼曼皇曼曼皇m—— I—— !———— III I舅舅
foreigners to work in hotels and restaurants and enjoy employment’s
opportunities of Zanzibaris．n圮Government can emphasis this from the
beginning where investors registers their investment as a precaution that they
should employ residents in their investment and thus could benefit more to local
Zanzibaris．
6．Education should be given to local people in order to enable them to work in
tligh positions instead of working like waiters；chief cookers which give those
low salaries and thus their living standard remain poor．The learning
opportunities must be distributed to all people in rural areas and urban,even the
Government can use regional leaders to select people and make sure all people
around the country are getting these opportunities around the country and thus
will improve the quality of services from local people to tourism．
7．Political stability especially in the period after election should be maintained
in order to make more tourists visit Zanzibar．Zanzibar had some political
disturbance after election which decreased income to the government．The
leading political party and competitive party should consider this after each
election by educating their members．
From the findings of this research，I further recommend the following：一
1．Creation and innovation must increase in tourism industries business and
activities，in order to make tourists stay long time in Zanzibar，variety of
things which can attract their staying in the Islands instead of only
visiting in historical sites，beach and in the National conservation park．
2．Tourism should be operated in consideration of culture and attitude of
Zanzibaris．
3．It is the time for those who are concerned with tourism to make data
available to the public despite their sensitivity or classified nature．
4．Infrastructure must be well organized and constructed especially water
and electricity supply otherwise the country can not enjoy fiafits of
tourism．Zanzibar should have a permanent source of power,instead of
depending on submarine cable from Tanzania mainland some thing
一．Thesis
for master’S degree Southwest University
which makes the availability of electricity in the islands to be not
guaranteed．The sun and wind Can be used as sources of power however
enough research and funds should be allocated but the important也i119 is
to simplify tourism’S operation．
5．Local people must have their local union in their areas and present their
concerns about tourism to local government inStead of waiting for main
government to think and work for them．
6·Government should use Participative approach in tourism industry,by
considering communities around and listening their opinions and
disturbance from tourism operations in their areas and thus will promote
efficiency in both parties．
7·The Government of Zanzibar should give out loan to stake holders in
order to enable them opening different business activities like selling of
batik,their art and craft and even fi'uits and foods which are also needed
in the tourism industry．
8．The Government should use the revenue earned from toudsm sector bv
importing capital goods that will improve industrial sector zmd
production as well economy as whole．
70
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tourism andeconomic growth in Srilanka’’Monash University．
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Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
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曼i—I—_II————_II—II—_II—ii—_II—— --——I I鼍曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼
8．http：／／www．tanzaniainvest．corn．
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75
AMAPUNGUJAAND PEMBAISLANDSBESIDESTANZANIA
Appendix Two
APPENDIX 11vVO
QUESTIONAIRE
AQUESTIONAII之E FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF TOURjSM
GROWTH TO LOCALPEOPLE ANDTO THE CUITURE OF ZANZmAR
Please answer the following questions according to the instructions below：-
Please tick for an appropriate box
Where do you live?
Nungwi 口
Kendwa 口
Paje 口
Zanzibar Town 口
Do you understand the tourism or tourists?
a．Yes 口
b．No 口
Some writers believe that tourism benefits local people Do you agree?
Yes 口
No 口
77
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
How are u benefited from tourism business in this area?
By selling some products to hotels around 口
By investing in hotel business or restaurant 口
By employing your self as tourist guide 口
By learning some language from them 口
Is there any other advantages are u getting from tourism?
Yes
No
口
口
呈￡YeSName itplease ⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯．
Does tourism affecting the culture of Zanzibar?
Yes
No
If yes howit is affecting Zanzibar culture?
口
口
Through adapting people to strange wearing style?
Through adapting people to strange behaviors?
Through going opposite、析th Islamic religion?
Is there any other way that call tourism destroy culture?
78
Appendix Two
Yes
No
口
口
IfyesName it please ．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
Other things remain constant the improvement oftourism sector carl improve Zanzibar
economy．Do you agree?
Yes
No
If Yes or No please explain shortly．
口
口
Do you have any advice to the government concerning tourism sector’s operation7
Please give it out．
79
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University 曼皇曼曼曼曼舅曼量曼曼置曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼!曼皇曼曼!曼曼曼舅曼曼皇I —I曼曼皇曼曼曼!曼曼!曼曼曼璺皇曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼
D』吼FOR SECTORAL CoNTRIBUTION To THE RGDP oF ZANZIBAR
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP at markt prices 180．1 182．9 197 204 222 241 255．7 272 286 303
Agrwulture，forestry&费shi鸭
Crops 30．7 29．8 3l 30．7 35．9 34．8 36．6 37．3 37．9 49
Livestock 8．2 8．5 8．8 9．1 9．4 9．7 lO．1 10．4 10．8 11．2
Forestry&hunting O．9 1 l l 1．1 I．1 1．1 1．1 1．2 1．2
Fishing 6．1 6．7 9．5 8．8 lO．1 10 10．2 lO．7 11．4 ll_3
Industry
Mining&quarrying 1．1 1．1 1．1 l 1．1 1．4 1．9 2 2．3 2．4
Manufacturing 12．9 12．6 12．4 12．3 11．3 13 14．7 13．9 14．2 14．7
Electricit／．gas＆water supply 3 3．2 3．4 3．5 3．7 3．8 4 412 4．5 4．8
Construction lO．5 7．9 8．8 6．1 8．5 9．8 12 16．6 18 24．1
Serwcaes
Trade&repairs 18 16．1 19．7 20．1 23．7 24．1 24．2 24．7 28．4 28．6
Hotels&restaurants 12．5 13．1 13．8 16．2 13．3 15．3 14 15．6 21．9 23．9
Transport&communications 8．4 8．7 lO．8 12．3 13．9 16．3 19．8 21．1 23．2 23．3
Financiai intermediation 1．8 1．7 2．2 2．7 2．9 3．5 3．9 4．6 5．2 4．7
Ikal estate&busineSS services 1．9 2 2．7 2．9 3．5 2．4 2．5 2．6 2．7 2．8
Public administration 22．8 27．5 26．8 30．4 33．9 40．4 41．8 44．7 38．6 31．6
Education 10．1 11．1 11．1 11．6 12．7 13．9 14．3 15．3 15．4 16．3
Healtll 2．4 2．7 2．7 2．9 3．1 3．3 3．8 4 4．15 4．39
Other social&personal services 0．7 0．8 O．8 0．8 0．9 0．9 0．9 l l 1．1
80
Appendix Three：Source：Office ofthe Ch／efGovernment Statistician 2007-2008
APPENDIX FOUR
REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT OF ZANZlBAR 兰崞警滋P纛∞簇ER氢MI零T盆a
REsEARcH，FlL"lNG_■—-
SECTlON
N⋯：
Date and Place ofBirth
Nationality：
Passport Number：
Date and PIace ofI⋯ D蝴of n-valInZanzibar
DuraUon of stay：
ExpecleddateofDepadum； №arch TiⅧes
AUGUST 2009
。COMPARAT VE ADVANTAGE ON
TOURISM INZANZIBAR MUNICIPALITYl
MASOUD SALEH ISSA SOUTWWEST
UNIVERSITY CHONGQING 400715，BEI
BEl CHINA
Thisisto end⋯thatj have received and duly considered appIcanl 5 requeslI am
sattsfiedwiththe descdplions outlined above
篡Signat≥ureand“se”al”：Signatum⋯“”Off：舡，fi{琵龄。
InsbtIJ“an． ∞ot目efp⋯⋯‘
AddreBs：P OB洲232I
Dato： 30”JUNE，2009Zan
zibar
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
APPENDIX FIVE
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Acknowledment
量曼皇曼量曼葛曼曼曼曼曼皇量置曼曼皇曼!曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼曼寰皇量鼍i,W i曼璺曼量舅曼曼曼舅曼曼曼曼曼曼皇曼曼舅
ACKNOWLEDMENT
The accomplishment of this research work could not have been possible without
ideas，views，opinions and assistance from diversity of sources．
First 1 would like to thank the almighty Allah(God)for giving me strength and
health in pursuing my studies for the period of three years．Without Him nothing is
possible．1 would like also to give my special thanks to the Ministry of Agriculture，
Livestock and Environment of Zanzibar allowing me attending my studies in the
Peoples Republic of China．
1 would also like to express my gratitude to the Mayor of Chongqing municipality
for partially sponsoring of my studies at Southwest University in China．This
scholarship fundamentally facilitated my study in China．
Also I'm indebted to the Department of Higher Education m the Ministry of
Education and Vocational Training in Zanzibar)for giving me a loan which enabled me
to complete my studies．
I am grateful to my supervisors Prof．Xie Jiazhi and Assistant Prof．Li Yumei for
their intellectual guidance，encouragement and support which made this research work
less challenging and hitch free．
1 would also like to express my sincere appreciation to my sister Florida Banda
for her tireless efforts，assistance and direction that simplified the writing of this paper．
My thanks also go to Ministry of Trade，Tourism，Industry and Investment of
Zanzibar especially to Mr．Mlingofi for his assistance which is the fundamental to my
research work；the Commission for Tourism，Mr．Amour,Zanzibar Revenue Board Mr．
Kadenge，From OCGS Mr．Kit ambo，the llead of Conservation at Jozani Forest Mr．灿i；
villagers of Kendwa and Pete villages；people of Zanzibar Town and Mr．Salum Ali
documentation O伍cer from ZIPA．
My heart felt thanks should go to my beloved husband Mr．Masoud Saleh Issa for
83
Thesis for master’S degree Southwest University
II
his uncountable assistance and encouragement in the course．
My inner most thanks should go to my mother Ms．Mwanakheri Moh’d and my
father Mr．Issa Juma for their moral support．
With humility,I apologize to my children Issa and Saleh for all their sacrifice they
went through because of my studies for all times they could not be、析m me．
In addition I appreciate the efforts made by my father in law,Mr．Saleh Issa for
his efforts to make sure that I got financial support to complete my studies．
It would be a herculean task to mention all the people in one way or the other,
contributed immensely to the success of my studies and this work,however I、析sh t0
mention the following：my sister Salima Issa Juma,my close friend Mrs．Asma Bilal
Gharib and Lecturer of Zanzibar University Mr．Masoud Rashid Mohammed．It will be
unfair to forget my friends，my fellow workers，my classmates and my Colleagues at
Southwest University．
This work is dedicated to my children Issa Masoud Saleh and Saleh Masoud Saleh
with my love and apologies．